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Thread: OIL..

  1. #81

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    Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow View Post
    2) No, US shale oil caused the glut. Saudi just want to get back to their old market share back.
    5) Not a danger point to have 25-40% watercut for an oil pool under waterflood. Any oilman would love to have such 'low' water production when water been pumped into an oil pool
    And there are other producers coming online other than US Shale. See Iran, Ghana, Mozambique, Angola, Malaysia, Nigeria, UK, Algeria...and so on.

  2. #82

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    Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow View Post
    2) No, US shale oil caused the glut. Saudi just want to get back to their old market share back.
    5) Not a danger point to have 25-40% watercut for an oil pool under waterflood. Any oilman would love to have such 'low' water production when water been pumped into an oil pool
    Good point on #2 - I stand corrected

    On #5, simply trying to point out that Ghawar is not what it once was, and Ghawar is currently the world largest producing oil field

    On a side note, if US shale is/was the cause of the glut, how long can they continue to produce at current prices?

    IceAged
    Disclaimer: DYODD (Do your own due diligence). Any information in these posts are my own personal opinions and not investment advice

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT! - "K"

  3. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by IceAged View Post
    Good point on #2 - I stand corrected

    On #5, simply trying to point out that Ghawar is not what it once was, and Ghawar is currently the world largest producing oil field

    On a side note, if US shale is/was the cause of the glut, how long can they continue to produce at current prices?

    IceAged
    5) oil sand contain has more oil than saudi. No matter how big they are, each pool has an expiry date.

    Define "how long can they continue to produce at current prices"

    a) continue to make money?
    b) continue to drill and frac?
    c) continue to reap what they have now?
    d) continue with the ponzi scheme?

  4. #84

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    Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow View Post
    5) oil sand contain has more oil than saudi. No matter how big they are, each pool has an expiry date.
    Quote Originally Posted by Atlas Shrugged View Post
    And there are other producers coming online other than US Shale. See Iran, Ghana, Mozambique, Angola, Malaysia, Nigeria, UK, Algeria...and so on.
    Hey there Atlas and YS

    All good and valid points, as well as

    Venezuela
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuela

    and

    Brasil
    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=3849290

    Sitting on a bunch of oil.

    So there is a lot of oil out there.

    I got off track. Forget all the news and reports (for me)

    That's why I like the charts (and the companies and not the commodity).

    I can just go to somewhere like below and get all kinds of data.

    It gives a picture of what all of the specs, good news, bad news, geo-politcs, futures, all baked into one nice little picture and a 'fact' sheet.

    Just cold hard numbers, with no media spin, propaganda, emotion. It's all baked into the numbers. IMHO

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CEO+Key+Statistics
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=C...22linear%22%7D

    These companies got beat up hard and were/are at bargain basement prices
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=C...22linear%22%7D

    And with dividend paying companies it's harder for them to cook the books.

    And in this 'oil crisis glut' the big guys will survive and eat the little guys for lunch.



    Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow View Post




    Define "how long can they continue to produce at current prices"

    a) continue to make money?
    b) continue to drill and frac?
    c) continue to reap what they have now?
    d) continue with the ponzi scheme?

    Hey YS,

    I was thinking 'b' in lines with stating #2 was cause of glut. and if #2/'b' stops will the glut dwindle?

    Rigs shutting down all across the US.

    I think production is still good in US with the lower cost fracking operations, but the higher cost operations are now offline.

    But again, whether the two sentences above are correct or not, this is not really what I am basing my decisions on. Just want to look at the numbers and the 'fact sheet'

    All I want right now if for HAL to pull back so I can grab some
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=H...2linear%22%7D0

    I see HAL going to 54-57 min target (currently at 48ish, stop at 43ish) and then challenging the old 52 week highs at 70ish. RVR is not right for me on this one yet. 46ish would do it for me. Not gonna chase it.

    Every single time HAL tanked it went on to meet or take out the last significant high (every time)
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=H...22linear%22%7D

    Would really like to hear any other bullish or bearish thoughts.

    Good luck and best wishes to all in their trading/investing


    IceAged
    Disclaimer: DYODD (Do your own due diligence). Any information in these posts are my own personal opinions and not investment advice

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT! - "K"

  5. #85

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    Amost forgot.

    This is a BTFD scheme
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

    Seriously though. Nothing but Higher Highs and Higher Lows. This sure looks like an uptrend to me.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=H...22linear%22%7D


    Happy trading All.

    IceAged
    Disclaimer: DYODD (Do your own due diligence). Any information in these posts are my own personal opinions and not investment advice

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT! - "K"

  6. #86

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    I think production is still good in US with the lower cost fracking operations, but the higher cost operations are now offline.
    Agree.

    A interesting piece...


    Meanwhile, the underlying fundamentals of the economy are deteriorating at rate that now rivals the rate at which it was deteriorating in 2008. I just got an email from someone today who told me that financial analyst Dave Skarica has stated that all midwestern regional banks who gave out loans to U.S. shale producers do not have any loan loss reserves for when these loans go bad. He also said that NONE of these banks have taken write downs yet on the loans that are now trading between 50 and 70 cents on the dollar in the market. This means that $100 million loan on a bank balance sheet is worth only $50-70 million based on real market market data, yet the bank is carrying this loan at $100 million.


    This situation is magnified at the at the Too Big To Fail Bank level. Every single TBTF bank has released most of its loan loss reserves back into its income statement over the last 4 years in order to generate GAAP accounting “net income” beats of estimates. But this is non-cash, phony money. How about if we get to see JP Morgan’s inside books and see where it has marked unsold, unsyndicated bank loan paper to near-insolvent shale companies. I’d be my dog’s life they have that debt marked at 100 cents on the dollar even thought it’s likely worth, at most 50 cents.


    The Fed has no choice but to chase the stock market higher and keep interest rates at zero. Hell, if the Fed were to let rates normalized, it would suffer huge losses on all the Treasury and mortgage debt it purchased over the last 5 years – $3.6 trillion of debt that would lose at least 5-10% of its value. The Fed would be technically insolvent.
    At..

    http://investmentresearchdynamics.co...of-a-lifetime/

  7. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by Westerner View Post

    Yes sir,

    From your excerpt...

    "The Fed has no choice but to chase the stock market higher and keep interest rates at zero. Hell, if the Fed were to let rates normalized, it would suffer huge losses on all the Treasury and mortgage debt it purchased over the last 5 years – $3.6 trillion of debt that would lose at least 5-10% of its value. The Fed would be technically insolvent."

    And as Captain Broccoli so eloquently puts it...

    https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4?t=17

    "You have the US government promising to buy everything forever, How can it be difficult to make money in that environment?"


    IceAged
    Last edited by IceAged; 04-26-2015 at 09:48 AM.
    Disclaimer: DYODD (Do your own due diligence). Any information in these posts are my own personal opinions and not investment advice

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT! - "K"

  8. #88

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by IceAged View Post
    Yes sir,

    From your excerpt...

    "The Fed has no choice but to chase the stock market higher and keep interest rates at zero. Hell, if the Fed were to let rates normalized, it would suffer huge losses on all the Treasury and mortgage debt it purchased over the last 5 years – $3.6 trillion of debt that would lose at least 5-10% of its value. The Fed would be technically insolvent."

    And as Captain Broccoli so eloquently puts it...

    https://youtu.be/0akBdQa55b4?t=17

    "You have the US government promising to buy everything forever, How can it be difficult to make money in that environment?"


    IceAged
    well, only for those who can get fed's money at 0.25% rate.

  9. #89

    Default

    WTI 58.66

    (and HAL is now up way stretched from my buy target)

    Oh Well, I least I have 5 positions with BIG OIL companies


    IceAged
    Last edited by IceAged; 04-29-2015 at 12:14 PM.
    Disclaimer: DYODD (Do your own due diligence). Any information in these posts are my own personal opinions and not investment advice

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT! - "K"

  10. #90

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    T Boone Pickens says $70 by the end of the year.

    No return to $100 oil this year says T. Boone Pickens who forecasts $70 by the year-end

    http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-stocks/2015/03/20/no-return-to-100-oil-this-year-says-t-boone-pickens-who-now-forecasts-70-by-the-year-end/


    Billionaire hedge fund manager Texan T. Boone Pickens said he sees $70-a-barrel oil by year’s end, and between $80 and $90 within 12 to 18 months. That meant he did dial down his longer-range forecast from December, when he predicted on ‘Squawk Box’ $90 to $100 barrel in 12 to 18 months.


    You have to wonder where his next downward revision might leave us for 2015. This is not going to be a good year for the Oil States by any stretch of the imagination…
    What's the Frequency, Kenneth?

    432Hz

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