Is nickel the Canary?

[WhatsUpDoc1958]

Nickel up to $8.3769, according to Kitco.

Nickel down to $8.2567 this morning, according to Kitco.

[WhatsUpDoc1958]

Market Nuggets
Kitco News

BNP Paribas Sees Falling Nickel Output, Higher Prices
Thursday April 24, 2014 8:40 AM

Falling world finished nickel production will push prices higher, BNP Paribas says. The firm forecasts total world finished nickel product will fall by 2% to 2.5% in 2014, and by another 4% in 2015. World nickel demand growth will slow, however, and only rise 3% to 4% per year in 2014 and 2015. A supply deficit is expected to emerge in the second half of the year, but it depends on whether or not Indonesia lifts its ban on exports. The firm is retaining its April forecasts for prices to reach $16,250 a metric ton in 2014 and $18,500 in 2015.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News; dcarlson@kitco.com

[12many]

Am I right in thinking that nickel is an additive in steel making?

How/ where is it mined? Are there opencast nickel mines like the copper one in Papua New Guinea? Or is nickel a by product type material in other mining? Not leading or rhetorical, just asking.

Copper production was ramped up a lot in the long Chinese boom years, as was coal and iron ore. Look at the infrastructure projects in Australia to feed the commodity boom. New harbours, roads, rail line etc.
There are huge stocks of copper (as already mentioned) which the Chinese have been using as collateral for loans, and copper is easily recycled, as it is used in high purity forms (wire, pipe, etc) whereas I guess (hate guessing) that nickel is not used in many applications in a pure form (old coins excepted) making it harder to recycle.

Kinda grasshopper thought process going on, sorry bout that.
I'd like to see the base metals pick up in price, it would mean that the economy is recovering at the bottom end, where we live and work, and not just in the stock markets.

[Westerner]

Nickel is the war metal. It's needed for all things that need hardened metals. Like tanks, guns, swords, engines, ball barrings, etc...

I once owned a mining claim that had a low grade nickel mine on it. In the late 1940-early 50s it produced and made profit, while the gold on the same placer claim was left for me to mine in the late 1990s. Silver was valued less, look at the war nickels.

IMO and guess is that the tightening of the nickel trade/market is a run up to war. That is why I started this thread. Nickel could be the canary.

[12many]

Thanks for the info westerner.

I really hope you are wrong about the future possibility.(Re Ukraine)
All the best.

[Westerner]

Not just Ukraine and Russia, but the East too. IIRC the large new nickel supply that was coming out of Indonesia to help supply world demand has stopped. They are still selling above ground stocks, but new supply has about stopped.

And when I muse about war, I include financial war as well as the ability to stop or slow down production of all things needed to be made with nickel.

I don't know, but nickel is telling us something. They say everything is done for a reason.

[opiumbox2000]

Nickel is the war metal. It's needed for all things that need hardened metals. Like tanks, guns, swords, engines, ball barrings, etc...

I once owned a mining claim that had a low grade nickel mine on it. In the late 1940-early 50s it produced and made profit, while the gold on the same placer claim was left for me to mine in the late 1990s. Silver was valued less, look at the war nickels.

IMO and guess is that the tightening of the nickel trade/market is a run up to war. That is why I started this thread. Nickel could be the canary.

Interesting prediction

[Westerner]

It almost seems as if Indonesia's ore export ban, was the first real shot or move.

Nickel has gained almost two bucks a pound since this thread was started.

http://www.business-standard.com/art...0800377_1.html

Canary bars..



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ale-plant.html

Nickel reached a two-year high in London after Vale SA was ordered to suspend production at a plant in New Caledonia, adding to concern that reviving demand for the metal might exceed supply.

The suspension was ordered after a spill, according to a statement on the website of the island nation’s Southern Province government. Nickel surged 41 percent in London trading this year after leading global miner Indonesia barred ore exports in January. The potential for sanctions against Russia also aided prices, according to Societe Generale SA.

“Clearly with the nickel market already tightening on Indonesia and possible sanctions against Russia, this is adding to the general sense that the market is facing a supply shortage over the coming months, if not years,” Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said by phone today.

Nickel for delivery in three months gained 4.8 percent to $19,550 a ton by 10:21 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange after touching $19,786, the highest level since March 2, 2012.

Russia, which may face Western sanctions after intervening in Ukraine, is home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of refined metal. The stainless-steel industry is the main source of demand, the Nickel Institute says. Outokumpu Oyj, which delivered 2.59 million tons of stainless steel in 2013, in April predicted better base prices in the current quarter.

[WhatsUpDoc1958]

Nickel peaked at about $9.26 today, and is now at $9.1042 per pound, according to Kitco.

I have seen predictions that nickel may head to $11 per pound because of the Indonesia export ban.

"$0.0504357 is the melt value for the 1946-2014 [Jefferson] nickel on May 09, 2014", according to CoinFlation.

If Jefferson Nickels are replaced with a cheaper metal, say steel, the collectible value of Jefferson Nickels may rise significantly. We may begin to use the term "junk nickel" in the future.

[Westerner]

At one time, I had a bunch of junk nickels, but then while transporting them to my BOL, my boat hit a floating FIAT berg and sunk into the PITS OF ZOOL along with me other bounties, grrr......