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Thread: Factual evidence to the true state of the economy

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by AnotherDave View Post
    We need someone really smart like Borat Obama to take control of this mess that George Bush left us in.

    .
    ...........

    To Be, Do. Descarte
    To Do, Be. Sartre
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  2. #22

    Default True State of the US Economy 01/31/2013

    Don't Be Fooled, GDP Growth Was Even Worse than -0.14%


    A few weeks ago we commented that the Great Global Rig of 2012 was ending. Yesterday's GDP print confirms this.
    We noted in the second half of 2012 that the US Federal Government was engaging in a massive rig to make the economy look better than it really was in order to help the Obama re-election campaign. This showed up in the jobs data as well as the 3Q12 GDP print.
    Now the election is over and we're stuck with the hangover. The mainstream media likes to claim that the fourth quarter GDP number is the result of the Government cutting spending, but the truth is that Government outlays increased 12% in 4Q12.
    Indeed, the sad truth is that the US economy is actually in far worse shape than the official data indicates. As we've noted before, the Feds dramatically understate inflation to make GDP growth look better.
    Case in point, the GDP deflator today is a mere 0.6% when real inflation is closer to 8%. So even the -0.14% print is in fact overstating real growth dramatically. If you account for the real increases in the cost of living in the US, GDP shrank well over 1% in 4Q12.
    The impact of this will be huge. Remember that the Fed only just announced QE 3 and QE 4 in the second half of 2012. The fact that we've got this terrible GDP print in spite of this doesn't do much for the Fed's claim that QE will stimulate growth.
    As we noted in yesterday's article, the Fed is already splintering on the benefits of QE. For the US to print such an ugly GDP number right after QE 3 and QE 4 were announced doesn't bode well for more aggressive policy from the Fed. But then again, we are talking about the Fed here, so they could very easily claim that the bad GDP print is because QE 3 and QE 4 are not big enough. Regardless of this, it's clear the market is peaking out. The Russell 2000 has begun to diverge from the Dow and S&P 500. Former leaders like Apple and RIMM are tanking, while companies that are losing business rapidly (Amazon) continue to rally.
    This is precisely the sort of action we saw going into the Tech top and the 2007 top. The Fed has managed to create a bubble in stocks and housing again... right as the US economy collapses (just like in 2000 and 2007). We all know what came next.

    Tomorrows job numbers should be interesting to say the least.

    From my in box "Gains Pains and Capital"
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  3. #23

    Default It's been a year, yikes!

    Checked out my old link just for the fun of it, and boy it is still headed in the wrong direction. The recession is over? Since when?

    Am I seeing this wrong? It looks like we are somewhere back in the 1980's for gasoline sold, and I know we are quite a bit higher in population since 1980. Hmmmm. Worth looking at. I'll check it again in another year.

  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by AnotherDave View Post
    We need someone really smart like Borat Obama to take control of this mess that George Bush left us in.

    .
    Fully agree Obama isn't worse than G Bush, he herited a Hugaa and only added some more to the pile...

    Golditiki +++
    if 1 oz of gold is heavier THAN 1 oz of silver, THEN you have a problem

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jamesbong View Post
    If the fossil fuels and their derivatives, as well as trees for paper and construction were banned in order to save the planet, Reverse the Greenhouse Effect, and stop deforestatation, then there is only one known annually renewable natural resource that is capable of providing the overall majority of the world's paper and textiles, meet all the world's transpartation, industrial, and home energy needs, while simultaneously reducing pollution, rebuilding the soil, and cleaning the atmosphere all at the same time..... and that substance is the same one that has done it all before-Cannabis Hemp.....Marijuana!
    i would rather say that they should change the grazing in Sahel-like areas, it is not deforestation so much but overgrazing and overpopulation in those fragile areas which causes problems.

    There is enough sun energy to desaline and pump seawater to areas needing irrigation.
    If all the spoiled money would have been put into utile projects instead of Q easings, weapons and war, the economy would have been buoyant and we would not have needed these stupid social laws, because powerty wouldn't have existed.

    Politicians need poor people and a lot of them to survive.


    Golditiki +++
    if 1 oz of gold is heavier THAN 1 oz of silver, THEN you have a problem

  6. #26

    Default Latest GS Swirl-o-gram

    The gas chart is amazing, it's simple, easy to explain, and just speaks about volume. Very chilling.

    Here was/is the latest graph...we are getting towards the lower left side, which is the bad side of this graph.

    Goldman Warns Global Slowdown Getting "More Serious"


    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-03/goldman-warns-global-slowdown-getting-more-serious

    Where do we get off the merry-go-round !
    Buy Gold and Silver, then wait.
    Gold, Silver: Beautiful Insurance in Ugly Situations
    Monetary triangle: U-Unit of Account, W-Store of Wealth, M-Medium of Exchange.
    PMs are unencumbered tangible fungible fractionable portable durable liquid insurance...without counter party risk; elementary, "Internet Safe" w/o tech issues.
    Silver cheaper than Gold, both precious !!
    Gold and Silver are elemental with no man-in-the-middle.

  7. #27

    Default

    [QUOTE=HardlyPeeved;2207687]The gas chart is amazing, it's simple, easy to explain, and just speaks about volume. Very chilling.


    YEs , it is confirmed - Coriolis economy ! You must look at the chart like your praying to the porcelean god.

  8. #28

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    Hereís a mystery of the modern economy: Growth is picking up, the job market is improving and most government data show the economy on the mend. Yet the parts of the private sector that ought to be enjoying a robust recovery arenít.





    The sliding fortunes of Walmart (WMT) may best represent this recovery gap. Overall, retail sales rose 4.2% in 2013, or about 2.7% after accounting for inflation. And consumer confidence surveys show Americans on the whole feel considerably better now than they did a year ago. That ought to indicate good times for the nationís biggest retailer.

    Yet Walmart is struggling with weak sales and an underperforming stock price. The company recently cut its profit outlook, with analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expecting just a 2.1% gain in sales when Walmart reports its quarterly earnings on February 20. Thatís for a company that has consistently outcompeted nearly every other retailer except, perhaps, Amazon. Walmartís stock has suffered, rising just 4% during the past year, while the S&P 500 index rose 17% during the same timeframe.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...215417616.html
    $x8(1 half-dollar, 1 quarter, 1 dime)
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  9. #29

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    Yes, it is true that certain things show improving parts of the economy. But I have yet to see one indicator yet that can disprove the huge backwardation going on in lots of places. Mostly the things that are going up are subject to investment bias. Barrels of gasoline sold by refineries sort of defeats that bias.

  10. #30

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fl57caveman View Post
    Hereís a mystery of the modern economy: Growth is picking up, the job market is improving and most government data show the economy on the mend. Yet the parts of the private sector that ought to be enjoying a robust recovery arenít.





    The sliding fortunes of Walmart (WMT) may best represent this recovery gap. Overall, retail sales rose 4.2% in 2013, or about 2.7% after accounting for inflation. And consumer confidence surveys show Americans on the whole feel considerably better now than they did a year ago. That ought to indicate good times for the nationís biggest retailer.

    Yet Walmart is struggling with weak sales and an underperforming stock price. The company recently cut its profit outlook, with analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expecting just a 2.1% gain in sales when Walmart reports its quarterly earnings on February 20. Thatís for a company that has consistently outcompeted nearly every other retailer except, perhaps, Amazon. Walmartís stock has suffered, rising just 4% during the past year, while the S&P 500 index rose 17% during the same timeframe.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-e...215417616.html
    It's not just Wal-Mart. With a few exceptions, most retailers are struggling and it doesn't jive with the reported (created) numbers from our gov't and broadcast in the media. Later this month we'll have the hard data from every major retailer in the U.S. since nearly all report on a Nov-Dec-Jan quarter. It's expected to be flat to +1%+2% for most.

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