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Thread: Silver crash.

  1. #1

    Default Silver crash.

    hello.

    I'm scary with the price of silver i'm investing in 37$ It is talk what the price going lower in the 18-20$. But somebody talk yet about the 9$ !!!
    Excuse for my bad english !!!

  2. #2

    Default

    Now is a time to buy and hold. Remember too, "deflation precedes hyperinflation". This is not about short term gains.


    Tim
    He drove a black and white pirate ship at 190 mph.
    - Dale in the #3 will never be forgotten. Thanks for the memories.

  3. #3

    Default

    No worries mate. We all know where the dollar is eventually heading. You will get your investment back imho.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by philname View Post
    hello.

    I'm scary with the price of silver i'm investing in 37$ It is talk what the price going lower in the 18-20$. But somebody talk yet about the 9$ !!!
    IF price of silver would go to $9 You would not be able to buy it for that price unless you would buy "paper silver".

    Theorethically price of paper silver can go to $0.29 if it is true that every 100 oz of paper silver represent just 1 oz of actual physical silver...like some conspiracy theorist claim.

    In 2011 74Moz of gold was mined compared to 761Moz of silver. It means that only about 10 times more silver was produced than gold but gold is 55 times more expensive than silver though industrial use of this metal is ten times smaller. Compare retail sales of physical bullion and you will see that investor demand for physical silver is much, much bigger than for physical gold on retail level. You do not have to be rocket scientist to notice that POS at least in relation to POG is incredible distorted if we will use free market principles of supply and demand.

    In other threads I showed mathematical calculation that 3 million of people from around the world could in theory wipe out the whole yearly world silver production (including recycled silver) by purchasing 300 oz of physical silver ($10k investment per person)... if POS would go to $9 per oz the same number of people could do the same by investing just $3k... or just 1 million of people would be enough to do same with investment of $10k.

    Per capita silver production is incredible small... industrial use incredible huge... silver is incredible usefull commodity... and silver reserves are finite particulary when coupled with rising energy costs and growing population of our planet. There is only one other commodity currently that offer such phenomenal perspective in value rise... oil but it is quite cumbersome to stack barrel of oil...
    Food? Well, you can increase food production much easier than silver production and when 1 oz of gold costed just $10 more than current POS it could buy you 33 gallons of milk... currently 1 oz of gold can buy you 600 gallons of milk... and I do not see famine or malnutrition around me... quite opposite... some people's health would improve if they would eat a little less...
    Everything I write in my posts is just my opinion.

  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by jbsilver View Post
    Theorethically price of paper silver can go to $0.29 if it is true that every 100 oz of paper silver represent just 1 oz of actual physical silver...like some conspiracy theorist claim.
    How does one come to a "theoretical price"?
    The price is the result of an active play between buyers and sellers combined with a passive play by hoarders. Neither of these sides can drive the price alone. If for example all entities on the futures market would dump their contracts, the future expectations part of the spot price would be erased and only the part according to todays demand versus supply would remain. And even this margin / extreme case is not a play on its own, because a physical demand increase due to the lower price could offset the futures market share disappearance.

    And that 100 oz of paper silver representing just 1 oz of actual physical silver, the amount paper silver is very simple to calculate: 5000 ounces per contract x net amount contracts, which was on 8 may 5000 x 17899=89495000 ounces or 2784 tonnes silver.
    The combined Comex depositories had on 10 may 140581983 ounces or 4372 tonnes silver.
    So the paper silver / Comex depositories ratio is 63,7%, while that claim of 100/1 means 10000%.
    If that 'conspiracy theorist claim' would be true, the Comex depositories would have to have 2784/100=27,84 tonnes silver. That's just too lol to be even considered true. My own private stack would be 1.1% of the Comex depositories' silver haha.
    the void

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by BuyLowSellHigh View Post
    hang in there, the band aid industry is going to make the price of silver EXPLODE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    That's true in a degree. Everytime the paper contracts are dumped in a large degree, the industrials are loading up silver big in a one time shot. I'm not sure about that band aid kind of industry though.
    the void

  7. #7

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lorian View Post
    That's true in a degree. Everytime the paper contracts are dumped in a large degree, the industrials are loading up silver big in a one time shot. I'm not sure about that band aid kind of industry though.


    If only miners would get this very simple fact, to buy oil/gasoline/diesel when prices are low. They just don't seem to get it.

    Imagine how much Silver Apple will buy on this dip/crash. That leads me to a conspiracy theory, I have never heard of on the web before, lets say Apple with their fleets of semi-loads of cash, loaded up on bull future contracts after buying 3 years worth of Silver. This would give them a real head-start on low production costs. Perhaps they wouldn't need to push their employees so hard that Apple could remove the suicide nets around their production plant in Asia.

    This theory could come into frutation, when Silver trades at many multiples of today's levels. As Silver is very consevatively used in electronic devices.

  8. #8

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lorian View Post
    How does one come to a "theoretical price"?
    The price is the result of an active play between buyers and sellers combined with a passive play by hoarders. Neither of these sides can drive the price alone. If for example all entities on the futures market would dump their contracts, the future expectations part of the spot price would be erased and only the part according to todays demand versus supply would remain. And even this margin / extreme case is not a play on its own, because a physical demand increase due to the lower price could offset the futures market share disappearance.

    And that 100 oz of paper silver representing just 1 oz of actual physical silver, the amount paper silver is very simple to calculate: 5000 ounces per contract x net amount contracts, which was on 8 may 5000 x 17899=89495000 ounces or 2784 tonnes silver.
    The combined Comex depositories had on 10 may 140581983 ounces or 4372 tonnes silver.
    So the paper silver / Comex depositories ratio is 63,7%, while that claim of 100/1 means 10000%.
    If that 'conspiracy theorist claim' would be true, the Comex depositories would have to have 2784/100=27,84 tonnes silver. That's just too lol to be even considered true. My own private stack would be 1.1% of the Comex depositories' silver haha.
    On paper you can have as much silver as necesary for your calculation. Some of that silver can have multiple owners. I can borrow monster box of silver deposit it in Brinks and claim I own it by showing you deposit slip. But that person who lend me that silver borrowed it from one another person... I do not claim that as a fact ... but I do not believe that numbers always reflect the truth. Books of first bankers (goldsmiths) sometimes showed more gold than they had in their vaults...cooked books are not as rare as you think...
    Everything I write in my posts is just my opinion.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by jbsilver View Post
    On paper you can have as much silver as necesary for your calculation. Some of that silver can have multiple owners. I can borrow monster box of silver deposit it in Brinks and claim I own it by showing you deposit slip. But that person who lend me that silver borrowed it from one another person... I do not claim that as a fact ... but I do not believe that numbers always reflect the truth. Books of first bankers (goldsmiths) sometimes showed more gold than they had in their vaults...cooked books are not as rare as you think...

    I heard on Bnn - a business network that as high percentile as 80% of Chinese business' that trade on the stock exchanges have cooked books.

    What a lovely World we live in, with someone/corporation looking to burn you every time you turn around.

  10. #10

    Default I do it

    cooked books are a time tested tradition. the ones at our business were cooked to a crisp. as to a silver crash i don't see it. further downside, quite possible but the end of year price will be higher than now. just play the market as it unfolds. forget to da moon and the gloom & doom.

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