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Thread: Do You Really Want A Higher Silver Price?

  1. #11

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  2. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
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    Come to think of it, capitalism is a bubble

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by beachman View Post
    Silver and gold is not a bubble. The rise was slow and steady.

    Facebook is a bubble.

    Amazon? A bubble.

    Zynga? Groupon? LinkedIn? Bubble. Bubble. Bubble.

    Just because you lost money does not mean it's a bubble.

    It's a bubble to you because you lost money.
    No - I bought at $18. I don't see how you could call a 600% increase in 5 years a slow and steady increase. If that's slow and steady, what is your definition of a unrealistic spike in prices?

  4. #14

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    I am with you in terms of losing my investment. I never bought PMs to make profit but it hurts to see my investment in the red! I bought more gold and less silver but my silver has lost more than gold!!

    Currently I dont know where PMs are going. I personally dont think its in a bubble..not yet.

  5. #15

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    This is interesting. I would like to know your reasons for thinking precious metals are in a bubble, whether you think it has burst already or if we should expect that sometime soon, and whether or not you think Google, Apple, and other stocks that have risen considerably are also in a bubble. If the bubble has already burst, 29-30 is the floor and real value of the underlying asset. If it has yet to burst, 29-30 is terribly overpriced for something with almost no value. If silver were to drop to $3, a lost of 97%, would that be a sign that the bubble had burst? I mean, I don't pay more than a couple dollars for tulips at the moment.
    According to investopedia.com, which has no vested interest in precious metals or commodities, "Bubbles form in economies, securities, stock markets and business sectors because of a change in the way players conduct business. This can be a real change, as occurred in the bubble economy of Japan in the 1980s when banks were partially deregulated, or a paradigm shift, as happened during the dotcom boom in the late '90s and early 2000s. During the boom people bought tech stocks at high prices, believing they could sell them at a higher price until confidence was lost and a large market correction, or crash, occurs. Bubbles in equities markets and economies cause resources to be transferred to areas of rapid growth. At the end of a bubble, resources are moved again, causing prices to deflate. Thus, there is little long-term return on those assets.

    Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...#ixzz1uifF6sWy"

    Have players changed? Is there deregulation? Is there a paradigm shift? Has there been a crash? Does 30% count as a crash? Or from recent highs, about 15%? Is one instance sufficient or do we need a longer-term trend?

    I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts and responses. I believe we may in the very near future (1-2 years) enter into the mania/bubble stage, but from what I see, read, and hear, I think it is quite premature to call precious metals a bubble as yet, much less to call it a burst bubble.
    My final question, is, if it is is a bubble, and we are on the wrong side of the bursting, so what? Does it change anything? What? How?
    Thanks for your reply.

  6. #16

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    I don't know where you're getting your 600% increase numbers in 5 years, from, but in 2006, the price ranged from around $9 (about 3XX% increase to now)to about $15 (about 100% increase to now). In 2007, the range was $13 (about 2XX% increase to now)~$15. In 2008, $15-21 (about 33% increase to now from the high point). In 2009, $11-19, in 2010 $15-30, 2010 $15-30 and 2011 27 to just under 50. These prices are from http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_ch...rly_graphs.plx
    This is more like a 200-300% increase, no matter what you take as your starting date to the current prices. The interesting thing to note from these is that there were the following spreads between high point and low point which may be useful(approximate)
    2006: $6
    2007: $2
    2008: $6
    2009: $8
    2010: $15
    2011: $23
    2012 (so far) 29-37, or a spread of $8.

  7. #17

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    and you've made 50% on your investment...that's pretty good, it's 50% more than you actually worked for. I have quite a few investments that have lost more than 50% in the same time period...so why complain about silver? it's doing what you want--making you money. Do you have as much as if you timed the top? No, but you DO have more money than you started with...pretty cool in my book Possible it will go up, and possibly much more? Yes. Stay calm. Breathe in, breathe out, and smile.

  8. #18

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    I was talking to a long time invester in pms and other comodities,he said silver has been between 4.00 and 14.00 for many many years before this bubble,when the euro mends itself and gets back, it may take a year or 2 silver will crash hard,it will go down 2.00-3.00 bucks a day for a week or 2 untill it reaches its true value again.Buying and holding silver today will be a very foolish investment he says,sure hope he is wrong

  9. #19

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    OK - plenty of room to spare in my calculations. I'll cut it in half. I was just calculating based on a $5 spot price - and $5 was probably a bit earlier than 2005. But, either way, silver has WAY WAY WAY outpaced any other thing your average consumer would buy. That is a bubble in my opinion. And all bubbles get popped eventually. In my mind, it's really about that simple.

  10. #20

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    I enjoyed reading this thread. In some ways I agree with the OP. But what hasn't been brought up yet is this:

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

    Rather shocking, isn't it? In fact, that is the real bubble. Not silver.

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