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Quagmire420420
12-29-2010, 12:32 AM
As some of you may know, there is a large open short interest on Hecla to the tune of some 45 million shares, out of about 250 million outstanding.

That said, I expect Hecla to produce outsized gains when the shorts are forced to cover in earnest.

Therefore, I believe Hecla should be at or near the top of people's lists in selecting mining equities to purchase.

ChainSawDave
12-29-2010, 01:18 AM
hecla is on fire.

Only EXK { endeavour silver } did better with a 7.5 % increase today.

ETF > gdxj posted a slightly higher percent gain today than HL

I don't know the reasons why HL is so hot, keep it simple > just own it

sliver573
12-29-2010, 05:17 PM
So does this mean there are counterfeit shares being created and should this be a concern for buyers? Is this naked short selling? Where do you get information on how many shares are shorted?

Quagmire420420
12-29-2010, 05:28 PM
So does this mean there are counterfeit shares being created and should this be a concern for buyers? Is this naked short selling? Where do you get information on how many shares are shorted?

No, there are no counterfeit shares, merely that some group of investors collectively is short 45 million shares or so. The only concern for buyers is when these shorts are going to be forced to capitulate and BUY TO COVER.

One source was a link from google finance,although truth be told I cannot produce this link at this time because I did not bother to save it or anything like that.

I do not if the short sales are naked or not, that would seem to be a very important question. Hopefully these shorts ARE naked, otherwise if all of them are covered, then there is no actual short position in practice.

mrgneiss
12-29-2010, 05:36 PM
It's come down a little, and 2.6 days to cover is not really enough to get a really juicy short squeeze.

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hl&submit=Short+Quote%99

Venturer
12-29-2010, 05:36 PM
So does this mean there are counterfeit shares being created and should this be a concern for buyers? Is this naked short selling? Where do you get information on how many shares are shorted?

Here is where you can find if a NYSE stock is on the 'naked short' or FTD (failure to deliver) REG SHO list:
http://www.nyse.com/regulation/nyse/Threshold_Securities.shtml?date=20101228

ChainSawDave
12-29-2010, 05:55 PM
perhaps of greater concern than short selling is the political risks some of these miners have. Was it Venturer that mentioned the political risks of Hecla's properties in - -- Venezuala ? Obviously the President there is a Leninist nutjob with an ego similiar to Saddam Husseins.
Mexico is starting to scare me enormously > a lot of silver mines there, SSRI has property there and the narco gangs & corrupt police have just about obliterated rule of law within Mexico from north to south, east to west. What would stop a narco gang combined with local police from sending several hundred armed thugs to violently take over a mine ? Not much.

sliver573
12-29-2010, 06:05 PM
Thanks for the information, there clearly is a large short position in HL

By the way according to Max Keiser if they are naked short sales then it is counterfeiting. However he makes it clear that normal short selling is not counterfeiting

http://www.econoshock.be/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/30267848-30267853-slarge.jpg

"Naked Short Selling explained by Max Keiser 2010"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyyIG9Hw2UM

Instigator Al
12-29-2010, 06:46 PM
perhaps of greater concern than short selling is the political risks some of these miners have. Was it Venturer that mentioned the political risks of Hecla's properties in - -- Venezuala ? Obviously the President there is a Leninist nutjob with an ego similiar to Saddam Husseins.
Mexico is starting to scare me enormously > a lot of silver mines there, SSRI has property there and the narco gangs & corrupt police have just about obliterated rule of law within Mexico from north to south, east to west. What would stop a narco gang combined with local police from sending several hundred armed thugs to violently take over a mine ? Not much.


HL has nothing in South America.

This miner has two operating mines. TWO ! ! ! ! ! !

Both right here in the good ol USA.

Instigator Al
12-29-2010, 06:48 PM
It's come down a little, and 2.6 days to cover is not really enough to get a really juicy short squeeze.

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hl&submit=Short+Quote%99

That number does not really represent the true number.

HL did way less then 10 million shares today ? At todays rate it would take over 4 days to cover.

Anyway you look at it, 42 million shares short is enormous.

easy8
12-29-2010, 07:18 PM
HL has nothing in South America.

This miner has two operating mines. TWO ! ! ! ! ! !

Both right here in the good ol USA.



Hmm, I thought their mines were in Venezuala too, I remember that was the case some years ago. However, their home page now is listing all their US mines... with no Venezuala mine???

Can someone tell me what happened to their Venezuala mines? ... or my memory really was that bad?

Venturer
12-29-2010, 08:25 PM
Hmm, I thought their mines were in Venezuala too, I remember that was the case some years ago. However, their home page now is listing all their US mines... with no Venezuala mine???

Can someone tell me what happened to their Venezuala mines? ... or my memory really was that bad?

Back in 1999 Hecla bought Monarch Resources which gave them a nice Gold Mine in Venezuela. La Camorra produced around 90,000 oz per year. They operated there until 2007. They were basically forced to give it away (I think they sold it for $25M) because of Chavez. It hurt their stock for several years because investors thought Chavez would nationalize it (CDE is in the same boat in Bolivia currently). Everytime Chavez would say something stupid HL stock would go down.
HL now has two operating mines: Greens Creek in Alaska and Lucky Friday in Idaho.

easy8
12-29-2010, 09:00 PM
Back in 1999 Hecla bought Monarch Resources which gave them a nice Gold Mine in Venezuela. La Camorra produced around 90,000 oz per year. They operated there until 2007. They were basically forced to give it away (I think they sold it for $25M) because of Chavez. It hurt their stock for several years because investors thought Chavez would nationalize it (CDE is in the same boat in Bolivia currently). Everytime Chavez would say something stupid HL stock would go down.
HL now has two operating mines: Greens Creek in Alaska and Lucky Friday in Idaho.



Thanks Venturer for clarifying this for me. :)

Quagmire420420
12-30-2010, 01:05 AM
Thanks for the information, there clearly is a large short position in HL

By the way according to Max Keiser if they are naked short sales then it is counterfeiting. However he makes it clear that normal short selling is not counterfeiting

http://www.econoshock.be/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/30267848-30267853-slarge.jpg

"Naked Short Selling explained by Max Keiser 2010"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyyIG9Hw2UM


I watched the video and Keiser is very confusing.

He says naked short selling is selling without borrowing the underlying.

How can you sell something you don't have?

Quagmire420420
12-30-2010, 01:07 AM
It's come down a little, and 2.6 days to cover is not really enough to get a really juicy short squeeze.

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hl&submit=Short+Quote%99

I'm not really looking at days to cover because I do not believe that is relevant.

Furthermore in the event of a short squeeze one could easily see a couple of days at 50-80% gain and then have at that point have all shorts be covered. While it was only two days or so, gains like that or better would provide excellent capital appreciation to the longs.

So I believe days to cover is MUCH LESS RELEVANT than shorts as a % of float.

Quagmire420420
12-30-2010, 01:09 AM
That number does not really represent the true number.

HL did way less then 10 million shares today ? At todays rate it would take over 4 days to cover.

Anyway you look at it, 42 million shares short is enormous.

Yes, I agree, because there are only 250 million OUTSTANDING shares.

Furthermore, some of these shares are going to be owned by longs and therefore NOT NECESSARILY AVAILABLE for the shorts to buy and cover their positions with. In my opinion, the situation for the Hecla shorts is EXTREMELY DIRE IF NOT OUTRIGHT CATASTROPHIC.

sliver573
12-30-2010, 08:45 AM
I watched the video and Keiser is very confusing.

He says naked short selling is selling without borrowing the underlying.

How can you sell something you don't have?


I have no knowledge on the subject but it seems to me that it is simple as simply counterfitting, they are creating shares that were not issued by the company. Of course when things seem simple it probably means I don't understand it

http://www.econoshock.be/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/30267848-30267853-slarge.jpg

Golden Corn
12-30-2010, 09:10 AM
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hecla-Announces-Terms-for-bw-2385900869.html?x=0&.v=1

Not to hijack the thread, but how would this mandatory preferred to common stock also play into the situation? Any professional insight??

Thanks

mrgneiss
12-30-2010, 10:41 AM
So I believe days to cover is MUCH LESS RELEVANT than shorts as a % of float.

Shorts as a percentage of total float is just one isolated part of the picture. That is why you have to look at daily average volume and what percentage it is of the total float, and that is why the experts who designed this website solely to look at short squeezes have incorporated "days to cover", which takes into consideration the % short outstanding plus the daily share turnover, as the best metric to rate the possibly and severity of a short squeeze.

For example, a short squeeze is more likely in a stock with a low percentage short but also a low daily turnover, than one like HL with a higher percentage short but a fairly high daily turnover.

Instigator Al
12-30-2010, 12:52 PM
Shorts as a percentage of total float is just one isolated part of the picture. That is why you have to look at daily average volume and what percentage it is of the total float, and that is why the experts who designed this website solely to look at short squeezes have incorporated "days to cover", which takes into consideration the % short outstanding plus the daily share turnover, as the best metric to rate the possibly and severity of a short squeeze.

For example, a short squeeze is more likely in a stock with a low percentage short but also a low daily turnover, than one like HL with a higher percentage short but a fairly high daily turnover.

As i was trying to point out before, you cannot cherry pick data when it comes to days to cover.

The volume on this stock can vary by 10 million shares one day to the next. As a matter of fact, if you look at the days to cover toady compared to yeaterday things are already vastly different.

Saying that there was only 2 days to cover is very inaccurate. Nothing more then cherry picking.

mrgneiss
12-30-2010, 03:43 PM
As i was trying to point out before, you cannot cherry pick data when it comes to days to cover.

The volume on this stock can vary by 10 million shares one day to the next. As a matter of fact, if you look at the days to cover toady compared to yeaterday things are already vastly different.

Saying that there was only 2 days to cover is very inaccurate. Nothing more then cherry picking.

I was just quoting what was on the shortsqueeze.com, people whose core business is analyzing short interest and predicting possible short squeezes, they have no bias or attractions to the stocks they analyze so are probably a lot more experienced at it and more objective, and the 2.6 days to cover is not some made up number, it is based on hard undisputable numbers. Yes, and by definition the average trading daily volume is just an average and will vary around that number as the statistical definition of an average implies, but talk about cherry picking, I would say the trading volume on the day before New Year's Eve is statistically insignificant.

The bottom line is that there may be a small squeeze but if you're hoping for something explosive, hope is not a good trading strategy.

Instigator Al
12-30-2010, 04:43 PM
I was just quoting what was on the shortsqueeze.com, people whose core business is analyzing short interest and predicting possible short squeezes, they have no bias or attractions to the stocks they analyze so are probably a lot more experienced at it and more objective, and the 2.6 days to cover is not some made up number, it is based on hard undisputable numbers. Yes, and by definition the average trading daily volume is just an average and will vary around that number as the statistical definition of an average implies, but talk about cherry picking, I would say the trading volume on the day before New Year's Eve is statistically insignificant.

The bottom line is that there may be a small squeeze but if you're hoping for something explosive, hope is not a good trading strategy.

Fair enough brother but here is the deal.

As of the end of trading today the average volume on HL in now 10.5 million.

So at that rate it would now take 4 days to cover,not 2.

Four days of buying would probably trigger a large event.

That being said, i really don't care. Ive been holding this since 2.11 per share and i will continue to hold it until the shorts are gone.

Quagmire420420
12-30-2010, 05:49 PM
I was just quoting what was on the shortsqueeze.com, people whose core business is analyzing short interest and predicting possible short squeezes, they have no bias or attractions to the stocks they analyze so are probably a lot more experienced at it and more objective, and the 2.6 days to cover is not some made up number, it is based on hard undisputable numbers. Yes, and by definition the average trading daily volume is just an average and will vary around that number as the statistical definition of an average implies, but talk about cherry picking, I would say the trading volume on the day before New Year's Eve is statistically insignificant.

The bottom line is that there may be a small squeeze but if you're hoping for something explosive, hope is not a good trading strategy.

I'm not basing it on hope.

The fact of the matter is that the shorts HAVE to come up with 45 million shares.

Regardless of the time frame over which this process occurs, the price will be driven upwards based on this fact alone.

Venturer
12-30-2010, 06:02 PM
I'm not basing it on hope.

The fact of the matter is that the shorts HAVE to come up with 45 million shares.

Regardless of the time frame over which this process occurs, the price will be driven upwards based on this fact alone.

Unless of course the shorts know something you do not.
The EPA just came out with new enforcement directives on Toxic Emissions aimed specifically at Mining. Is it possible this could have a detrimental effect on HL production? Is it possible those who have been holding the majority of the short positions have had advance notice? If that were the case would it surprise you?
By my rough calcs the HL shorts are underwater by $130M. If they don't have deep pockets there would be margin calls. Are they wealthy and stupid?
I don't know, do you? I am long HL, but I am a nervous long with that big of a short that has been holding on for some reason. Hopefully it's just that they want their losses to be in 2011 or they hedging call options.

mrgneiss
12-30-2010, 09:57 PM
Unless of course the shorts know something you do not.
The EPA just came out with new enforcement directives on Toxic Emissions aimed specifically at Mining. Is it possible this could have a detrimental effect on HL production? Is it possible those who have been holding the majority of the short positions have had advance notice? If that were the case would it surprise you?
By my rough calcs the HL shorts are underwater by $130M. If they don't have deep pockets there would be margin calls. Are they wealthy and stupid?
I don't know, do you? I am long HL, but I am a nervous long with that big of a short that has been holding on for some reason. Hopefully it's just that they want their losses to be in 2011 or they hedging call options.

Mining has a lot of issues but toxic emissions is rarely one of them, that would affect the refiners more.

I think the shorts were hoping for some sort of repeat of 2008, which was an anomaly in this secular commodity and precious metal bull market. Once HL closes over $13.25 they will run for the exits, if not it only shows they are the TBTF and know they will be backstopped whatever the losses are.

Quagmire420420
12-31-2010, 12:29 AM
Unless of course the shorts know something you do not.
The EPA just came out with new enforcement directives on Toxic Emissions aimed specifically at Mining. Is it possible this could have a detrimental effect on HL production? Is it possible those who have been holding the majority of the short positions have had advance notice? If that were the case would it surprise you?
By my rough calcs the HL shorts are underwater by $130M. If they don't have deep pockets there would be margin calls. Are they wealthy and stupid?
I don't know, do you? I am long HL, but I am a nervous long with that big of a short that has been holding on for some reason. Hopefully it's just that they want their losses to be in 2011 or they hedging call options.

I think they are just stupid shorts. We shall see I suppose.

Venturer
12-31-2010, 02:16 PM
[QUOTE=mrgneiss;1184374]Mining has a lot of issues but toxic emissions is rarely one of them, that would affect the refiners more.QUOTE]


From the link below:
"WASHINGTON - December 17 - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has issued long overdue emission standards for the toxic pollution emitted by gold mining companies’ ore processing facilities."

http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2010/12/17-7

xinkid
12-31-2010, 04:00 PM
I bet the shorts have bought a **** load of call options to hedge, forcing the market makers to buy HL to hedge against the calls they sold to the shorts. It all seems like a big mess but it makes sense. :rolleyes:

Quagmire420420
12-31-2010, 04:21 PM
[QUOTE=mrgneiss;1184374]Mining has a lot of issues but toxic emissions is rarely one of them, that would affect the refiners more.QUOTE]


From the link below:
"WASHINGTON - December 17 - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has issued long overdue emission standards for the toxic pollution emitted by gold mining companiesí ore processing facilities."

http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2010/12/17-7

Note that it says the ORE REFINING FACILITIES.

That is totally different and apart from the mining operations.

Venturer
12-31-2010, 05:16 PM
[QUOTE=Venturer;1185150]

Note that it says the ORE REFINING FACILITIES.

That is totally different and apart from the mining operations.

The term is 'Ore Processing Facilities' which is the Milling part of Mining. But thats not all of it, the EPA is also concerned with dust from drilling, road dust, dust from open pit blasting and just about everything else that involves Mining. The EPA considers everything that is done in a Mine to be 'Ore Processing'.

Quagmire420420
12-31-2010, 05:26 PM
[QUOTE=Quagmire420420;1185264]

The term is 'Ore Processing Facilities' which is the Milling part of Mining. But thats not all of it, the EPA is also concerned with dust from drilling, road dust, dust from open pit blasting and just about everything else that involves Mining. The EPA considers everything that is done in a Mine to be 'Ore Processing'.

But would these regulations therefore apply to all mines and not just Hecla?

Venturer
12-31-2010, 06:14 PM
[QUOTE=Venturer;1185341]

But would these regulations therefore apply to all mines and not just Hecla?

Yes, all Mining in the US will be subject to the new EPA requirements. Hecla and other underground miners are in a better position than the open pit miners because they do not generate the volume of dust.

sliver573
01-14-2011, 02:56 PM
Is there any new news on Hecla and short positions?

90percentsilver
01-14-2011, 04:25 PM
Is there any new news on Hecla and short positions?


Wondering this, too. Hoping more info comes out on Hecla :)

theplantguy
01-14-2011, 05:11 PM
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
12/31/2010 40,034,343 10,161,948 3.939633
12/15/2010 43,271,554 16,841,035 2.569412
11/30/2010 44,351,249 13,634,826 3.252792
11/15/2010 44,907,591 19,294,144 2.327524
10/29/2010 43,835,269 8,927,764 4.909994
10/15/2010 43,491,596 9,112,598 4.772689
9/30/2010 41,296,322 8,406,155 4.912629
9/15/2010 40,964,902 7,291,986 5.617798
8/31/2010 40,354,756 6,773,045 5.958141
8/13/2010 39,264,827 5,445,797 7.210116
7/30/2010 36,448,977 5,826,642 6.255572
7/15/2010 36,743,914 6,362,334 5.775226
6/30/2010 34,981,620 7,764,827 4.505138
6/15/2010 39,071,791 8,597,323 4.544646
5/28/2010 40,228,044 12,041,740 3.340717
5/14/2010 40,123,376 15,185,598 2.642199
4/30/2010 38,272,094 11,558,813 3.311075
4/15/2010 37,065,913 9,597,548 3.862019
3/31/2010 38,782,810 10,383,397 3.735079
3/15/2010 34,576,415 8,478,870 4.077951
2/26/2010 35,883,931 12,448,913 2.882495
2/12/2010 34,241,653 16,141,925 2.121287
1/29/2010 33,588,677 14,889,906 2.255802
1/15/2010 32,611,481 10,956,608 2.976421


Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/shortinterests.aspx?symbol=HL&selected=HL#ixzz1B3Aw92ml

mrgneiss
01-14-2011, 05:51 PM
Is there any new news on Hecla and short positions?

Net short has been coming down, but days to cover has gone up, probably cuz avg volume has dropped a bit from dec/nov

http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=hl&submit=Short+Quote%99

Venturer
01-18-2011, 08:38 AM
For those that think Option positions matter, there is a huge Call postion in HL, at and over $10. Options expiry is Friday. If the shares sold short have a relationship to these call positions, this week will be interesting, because right now they are out of the money.

sliver573
01-18-2011, 03:42 PM
The largest position is at 12.50 strike price interesting

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=HL+Options