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nevadagold
05-08-2008, 09:40 AM
Platinum ETNs On Deck

At long last, it looks like U.S. investors are going to have access to platinum via an exchange-traded product. The precious metal was largely inaccessible to those who did not want to participate directly in the futures market, but the launch of two exchange-traded notes, the E-TRACS UBS Long Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTM) and E-TRACS UBS Short Platinum ETN (NYSE: PTD), appears to be imminent on the NYSE.

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/features/12/4093-platinum-etf-friday.html

The UBS ETNs will track the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Platinum Total Return Index. The E-TRACS family of ETNS already has several commodities-based ETNs covering different sectors as well as gold and silver currently trading, all of them tracking the UBS Bloomberg CMCI and its subindexes. The NYSE Web site had listed today as the launch date for PTM and PTD, but the roll-out appears to have been delayed. It's a fairly safe bet though that they will be making their debut any day now.

Mozart
05-08-2008, 10:29 AM
Nevadagold,


Thanks for posting this.


I was pleasantly surprised to see Pt shoot up $60/oz this morning with more apparent upside, so I scooted over to my SA websites to see what happened to cause such a price spurt. Nothing over there jumps out.


The other metals are still at wonderfully-low prices, so this ETF news has got to be a factor in this price spurt. I suppose the factor would be that greater numbers of people would now be able to divert far greater numbers of electronic dollars towards investing in Pt, thus removing some of them from an-already tight market. Good. We needed SOMETHING to push it up.


What is interesting to me was that my psychic friend in the end of March had forecast that Pt would go on a sideways trend for five weeks starting at the end of April, then commence on a nice bull run at the end of the five weeks. I recently talked to her about this forecast of hers, but she was dismissive of my reminder, thinking that she had missed this one. The end of the 5-week period was May 7th and here it is, May 8th, with Pt getting off on a nice, nice jump in prices. It remains to be seen if this is the start of a decent climb in prices, but if it is, she's hit it on the spot again.


Will the price increases sustain? If the ETF really does launch...yes, I think that Pt will sustain and go to $2,300 in less than three weeks from the official launch of that new ETF. About time!


With Pt at $2,200, I can get the he// out of it at a break-even level and back into Ag...but I may still wait until the end of June, with, perhaps a small profit in selling off the Pt and getting back into Ag. I think that Pt has better upside, short-term; but Ag has far better upside medium-term and long term.


I was planning to make a run to sell one round to raise cash on the early part of next week, so the timing of this up-move could not be better. I was under pressure to sell several, but I told my buddies that I felt that it would go up by next week, thus reducing my losses in selling a round or two to raise cash to make some smart business investments.

nevadagold
05-08-2008, 11:58 AM
With Pt at $2,200, I can get the he// out of it at a break-even level and back into Ag...but I may still wait until the end of June, with, perhaps a small profit in selling off the Pt and getting back into Ag. I think that Pt has better upside, short-term; but Ag has far better upside medium-term and long term.


Quite the strategy, hoping to get breakeven just to bail out. Brilliant plan mate! You know how the trading game works right? Once you bail out of your position then of course the Pt price is going to explode. Case in point. SIT TIGHT and don't try to trade your position. Believe it or not, we are still in the infancy stages of the bull market in the PMs.

Platinum Futures in Tokyo Gain on Signs of Auto Catalyst Demand

``Increasing demand is putting a floor underneath the price of platinum,'' Peter McGuire, managing director at Commodity Warrants Australia, said today by phone

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAq676BekKQc

Supply constraints and catalytic-converter demand are keeping the platinum market ``robust,'' Brad Mills, chief executive officer of Lonmin Plc, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in London today.

Mozart
05-08-2008, 12:16 PM
Case in point. SIT TIGHT and don't try to trade your position. Believe it or not, we are still in the infancy stages of the bull market in the PMs.


I am giving myself up to the end of June, perhaps all the way to the end of July, to hold on to my Pt, as I DO believe that it has better short-term upside of all the PMs; however, I firmly believe that Ag has far-better upside potential for medium-term to long-term price potentials, so I definitely will switch back to Ag.


It's not like I'm dumping Pt for fiat and hang'n on to fiat, ya know. You are right that I got into Pt for the wrong reasons, but the current market dynamics will enable me to exit with nary a loss and even a small profit to jump back into Ag.


Pt has the potential of going the path of Rhodium, yes, so, that's what, 5-times current values, yes? Not bad. But Ag has the potential of going 5-times current values, then 10, 20, even 30-times current values by the end of 2009, so I really do strongly feel that Ag is a better investment in the medium/long term; but, short-term, Pt rules.


I had a private e-mail exchange with an investor who also jumped into Pt with a $300K investment into Pt at the entry price level of $2,100, so I'm not the only one to have jumped into it for the wrong reasons. This dude is also looking to exit Pt (80% of his Pt position) and get into Ag sometime this summer, as he sees the same things as I do with the markets.


And we're not fools. I just HOPE that Pt would not get manipulated downward again like it has in the recent past -- that's my biggest worry at this point, but most market indications are pointing upward again, to my relief.

nevadagold
05-08-2008, 01:14 PM
I've traded the PM markets for a very, very long time and for what it is worth, I would say to avoid silver. Stick with platinum. There is an unprecedented short position in silver and it continues to grow. The supply and demand dynamics for silver are not really that bullish. A year from now, silver could be back over $20 while platinum will be well over $3000. Not a guarantee but I believe that there is way too many sellers in silver still which is not the case in platinum. Remember, china has an abundance of silver and zinc, but they have hardly any copper and platinum within the country so they essentially swap out contracts in the open market.

Mozart
05-08-2008, 02:35 PM
I've traded the PM markets for a very, very long time and for what it is worth, I would say to avoid silver. Stick with platinum. There is an unprecedented short position in silver and it continues to grow. The supply and demand dynamics for silver are not really that bullish. A year from now, silver could be back over $20 while platinum will be well over $3000.


Understand, Nevadagold, that I do respect your experience in the PM markets, so keep this in mind with respect to my asking you for some elaboration on your Pt v.s. Ag positions.


I jumped into Pt because of the fundamentals and such fundamentals have not changed, so I do think that Pt is a very good investment...for the time being. Back to that later.


Pt being at $3,000/oz is very realistic, yes, but that's only a 50% increase if one has invested into Pt at the $2K level. I think that the Pt has a massive downside risk this fall with a massive reduction of Pt catalyst demand, but, to explain that requires a whole post, so I'll have to save that for later.



Not a guarantee but I believe that there is way too many sellers in silver still which is not the case in platinum. Remember, china has an abundance of silver and zinc, but they have hardly any copper and platinum within the country so they essentially swap out contracts in the open market.


But the sellers in the open markets hold only about 150 million oz of silver, as far as I understand, so, compared to the total demand of Ag being in the 850 millon/oz range each year, I don't see significant-enough selling to offset massive price increases of silver that would result in the termination of the criminal COMEX 8 naked short positions.


Yea, China possibly has a large store of silver, but I don't think that they'll part with it, as they will more-than-likely keep it to support their Yuan that may go on the silver standard fairly soon after some key political and socio-economic moves are made to terminally end the rule of the Illoonynaughties and their fiat banks.


I just don't see how Ag would remain suppressed forever and just don't see how Ag prices would remain stuck in the $20 range if the restrictions on their pricing are removed.


If the currently behind-the-scenes movements to effectively remove the modern-day kings (Rothschilds, Rockefellers, etc) do not happen, then, yea, Ag would remain suppressed around $20 and Pt would go past $3,000/oz. But, as far as I see it, the forces of change soon will boil over and the agents of change would make their moves effectively ending the rule/domination of the modern-day kings -- that is THE key to everything. Removal of those modern-day kings.

SilverBar2007
05-08-2008, 03:19 PM
I really, really want to invest in platinum. These are the fundamentals I see:
1) industrial demand is like 85% of the market (might be off a little bit there)
2) investment demand overseas (especially china, japan) is huge, while here in the US it is there, but not as significant
3) jewlery demand is going up fast for it
4) it is one of the rarest metals on earth... right now
5) the mines in africa that mine Pt are having problems getting supply to the market, and russia is spotty on how much they have or how much they are selling from time to time

These 5 reasons are the ones I can think of. Seems to me the 6th is this new ETF(ETN?) for american investors to invest in PT. Unlike Ag, which I am extremely heavy in, Pt purchases in the US are not as great as they could be (from what Ive read) while silver has always been easily attainable for investment, but now is a little easier from SLV. So, it seems to me, that since Pt investment isnt as huge of a market in the US yet, this ETF could have a huge impact on price of Pt more than ETF's with Silver and even Gold.

My time spent researching Pt is limited, do I have these facts right?

If so, my biggest problem (the real reason I havent invested in Pt yet) is that unlike Ag, or Au, demand for Pt is completely controlled by 1 industry -- Auto... and if the industry decides to go with Pd, or something else, isnt Pt's price going to fall faster than David Duchovny's career?

Just a thought. I'd like a Pt researcher/investor to try to talk me INTO buying Pt with such a downside risk possible literally with no notice for us regular Joes. Thanks!

SexySilver
05-09-2008, 10:37 AM
Interesting

nevadagold
05-10-2008, 09:40 PM
This seems to be a mianstream consensus. Nobody liked it at $4, $8, or $15. Or $21. But everyone sures does like $2100 Platty. Platinum ETF?

Gold and Silver will continue to do OK. Here is a very simple fact though. Platinum is worth more than twice the price from its 1980 high, gold is just slightly over its 1980 high and silver is less than a third from its 1980 high. Another way of putting it, silver is only about $2 higher right now from its Spring 2006 high, gold is about $150 higher from its Spring 2006 high while platinum has doubled from its Spring 2006 high. It's nice to dream about hugely higher gold and silver prices but the reality of the situation is that platinum has outperformed gold and silver hands down since the metals complex bottomed out in 2000.

igorcarajo
05-13-2008, 04:42 PM
That article talks about a couple of platinum ETNs, not ETFs. Big difference. The ETF is asset-backed (bullion in a vault somewhere). The ETN is just futures with no actual assets.

igorcarajo
05-19-2008, 10:41 AM
Platinum ETN has been trading for a few days now. Ticker symbol is PTM

dumbnbroke
05-19-2008, 10:56 AM
I am giving myself up to the end of June, perhaps all the way to the end of July, to hold on to my Pt, as I DO believe that it has better short-term upside of all the PMs; however, I firmly believe that Ag has far-better upside potential for medium-term to long-term price potentials, so I definitely will switch back to Ag.


It's not like I'm dumping Pt for fiat and hang'n on to fiat, ya know. You are right that I got into Pt for the wrong reasons, but the current market dynamics will enable me to exit with nary a loss and even a small profit to jump back into Ag.


Pt has the potential of going the path of Rhodium, yes, so, that's what, 5-times current values, yes? Not bad. But Ag has the potential of going 5-times current values, then 10, 20, even 30-times current values by the end of 2009, so I really do strongly feel that Ag is a better investment in the medium/long term; but, short-term, Pt rules.


I had a private e-mail exchange with an investor who also jumped into Pt with a $300K investment into Pt at the entry price level of $2,100, so I'm not the only one to have jumped into it for the wrong reasons. This dude is also looking to exit Pt (80% of his Pt position) and get into Ag sometime this summer, as he sees the same things as I do with the markets.


And we're not fools. I just HOPE that Pt would not get manipulated downward again like it has in the recent past -- that's my biggest worry at this point, but most market indications are pointing upward again, to my relief.

hey, did you not use the same reasoning when you jumped to Pt from Ag?
I can not remember for sure but I think it was something like the above. I
wish you well in your investments but I want to be the first to thank you for the big increase in the price of PT that will no doubt begin the roughly the first of August. :)