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View Full Version : The Euro Going Up to 2:1 vs the USD



Abbas
09-13-2015, 06:44 PM
Hi,

I don't trade forex markets because frankly there are better returns to be made elsewhere and I don't like the leverage that brokers force on Forex trades. Almost all of the people here on Kitco forums are retail customers and generally retail customers get wiped out on short term movements because of the high leverage (1:100 is normal) even when they are right about the overall direction of the trade.

I don't like commenting on Forex as it's not my cup of tea but I came across a video of Martin Armstrong saying Dollar to the moon and the Euro is dead. King dollar articles are everywhere these days. Btw FYI he's right about $5000 gold just completely wrong on the Dollar (DXY @ 96 right now) Link below:

http://juniorminingnews.com/?p=26020

I'd just like to say that there are very few analysts that I respect but Armstrong is one of them. Not because he's been right a few times (Humbly I would like to say that I can correct quite a few flaws in his analysis/ECM) but because of his ability to think outside the box. He's truly one of the founding fathers of Behavioural Finance of which there are only three that I've come across, Elliot, Gaan and Armstrong. (Honourable mention Kondratiev but not in the 3).

If I may these three were/are excellent however IMHO Elliot (just didn't work hard enough), Gaan (Covered his brilliance in bull***t) and Armstrong (over confident/thought he could conquer all).

So you have the video above, if for some reason it doesn't work (this is a long term projection and links expire) search Google or Youtube for Armstrong $5000 Gold video.

The EURO (or deutsche mark) will be above 2:1 in 7-8 years (sorry this is not a trading thread).

Also if some Armstrong fans are listening and have access to him please tell him that his "Big Bang" is off by approximately 3 years (i.e add to his date)

Abbas
09-16-2015, 05:55 AM
The Euro looks good. If I was to take a short term trade, I'd buy now at 1.12, targeting 1.24.

http://saqoon.com/up/a862bf635a67fd44c534b67234394f9b.JPG

Abbas
09-19-2015, 11:07 AM
My analysis of Gold/Silver has been going reasonably well so I thought I should now experiment on and analyse the Dollar & Euro which is tougher to project than even Silver.

The Dollar and Euro have a million more variables and they are next to impossible to project but my short term dollar projection is:

1). From 95.38 Current to 93.4
2). From 93.4 to 95.85
3). From 95.85 to 92.6

The Euro should take a breather in it's move to 1.24 just around 1.17.

Lets see, if money can be tamed.

Abbas
09-25-2015, 01:52 AM
Looks like a rocket move coming very soon from $1.11 to $1.146

http://saqoon.com/up/ff784c5aa8e5999b7871fcb91fe597d0.JPG

Abbas
09-25-2015, 02:11 AM
The dollar is toast.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-says-yellen-fine-after-receiving-medical-attention-following-lengthy-speech-2015-09-24

She knows she can't do it but dammed if she does and dammed if she doesn't. Poor thing she's stuck in a really bad place. Higher interest rates would sky rocket the debt burden which the US can't bear already. If she must raise rates which the markets are now demanding the only option left is to devalue the dollar to make the debt manageable.

A strange scenario will unfold in which with rising interesting rates the dollar will move lower rather than higher. The beneficiary will be the EURO, PM's and Stocks.

Abbas
10-02-2015, 05:08 AM
If 1.112 breaks, closing all EURO long trades.

iventure2C
10-02-2015, 09:50 AM
Hi Abbas
Thanks for your links and research. I had been trying to do some research recently on what to do with some Euro currency in hand after I had completed a project in Europe this summer. I was in Greece when the banks shut down. Funny thing was, the Greek people were acting like life was just as normal as the day before, not what the media was showing. I saw no lines and the stores had plenty of food in them. Greek people told me they don't pay attention to the political stunts as they are always pulling some sort of political crisis for attention. The regular people don't have any money in the bank any ways!
I will be watching the thread and anything else you would like to add I will appreciate.

Abbas
10-03-2015, 08:41 AM
Hi Abbas
Thanks for your links and research. I had been trying to do some research recently on what to do with some Euro currency in hand after I had completed a project in Europe this summer. I was in Greece when the banks shut down. Funny thing was, the Greek people were acting like life was just as normal as the day before, not what the media was showing. I saw no lines and the stores had plenty of food in them. Greek people told me they don't pay attention to the political stunts as they are always pulling some sort of political crisis for attention. The regular people don't have any money in the bank any ways!
I will be watching the thread and anything else you would like to add I will appreciate.

Hi Iventure, you're welcome. I travel quite a bit and often have seen that the international headlines turn out to be exaggerated. All countries have issues but most of the headlines don't affect the lives of visitors or 90-95 % of the local population unless ofcourse it's a warzone like sadly Syria is now.

A high interest bond denominated in Euro's would be a great investment IMHO for the next few years. For example I was looking at the recent Pakistani Eurobond float which pays 8 % a year. Getting 8% a year and being paid in an appreciating currency is fantastic. I think over 10 years $100,000 invested in that bond with interest payments reinvested should net $215,892 and if the Euro appreciates as I expect it will to 2:1 vs the dollar, then that comes comes to $400,000 in 10 years making it a 40 % net return in a year on a bond!

That said I don't like to invest in bonds or interest paying instruments.

Just read this article below today on Bloomberg, it appears Citigroup is one of the first to 'get with the program' so to speak. If they only knew what kind of appreciation we were looking at they would make substantial changes to their investment model.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-03/world-s-biggest-currency-trader-says-weak-jobs-means-weak-dollar

iventure2C
10-03-2015, 12:02 PM
So very interesting. I read that link as well.
So how I am gathering it, in most simple terms, USD index going to go down which pushes Euro up which is actually bad for EU as that messes with export import issues but better for USD to going down some to help improve trade.


The US Dollar index measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of top 6 currencies: EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and SEK.

I was thinking this, as example: Is it possible the JPY adsorbs all the rise when the USD goes down? Or the next one in line and not the EUR? Or will they all go up equally as with one currency going down?
I would appreciate your opinion on that if you have the time.

Abbas
10-05-2015, 08:03 AM
So very interesting. I read that link as well.
So how I am gathering it, in most simple terms, USD index going to go down which pushes Euro up which is actually bad for EU as that messes with export import issues but better for USD to going down some to help improve trade.

I was thinking this, as example: Is it possible the JPY adsorbs all the rise when the USD goes down? Or the next one in line and not the EUR? Or will they all go up equally as with one currency going down?
I would appreciate your opinion on that if you have the time.

This should answer your question.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

Abbas
10-19-2015, 12:43 AM
Looks like a rocket move coming very soon from $1.11 to $1.146



Here we go.

http://www.saqoon.com/up/ccd981b0f17b79595e8d2258b8badde3.JPG

Abbas
10-19-2015, 12:59 AM
The party is getting started. Looks like a big move coming up for the Euro vs the Dollar. I'd say a 7 % fall in the dollar from current 94.6. The Euro should race towards my target of 1.24 from the current 1.13 and should cross it. If I was to take a guess I would say a 10 % or 10.5 % rise compared to Dollar's 7 % fall. I.e Ideal target for Dollar 87.9 and 1.25 for Euro. When ? Within about a month.

Here are the current live quotes.

http://www.saqoon.com/up/6862f2af0524255d136ba89cf932e86a.JPG

http://www.saqoon.com/up/7fa2bffb2d78c23963e9a73aa7c4745e.JPG

xemobehrize732
10-19-2015, 05:08 AM
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SilverPipe
10-19-2015, 11:31 AM
Thanks for the insight ... been looking for a play on this.

What do you think of the Proshares Ultra Euro (ULE) for this coming rise?

captainsilverton
10-19-2015, 12:09 PM
Thanks for the insight ... been looking for a play on this.

What do you think of the Proshares Ultra Euro (ULE) for this coming rise?

hmmm, lol...maybe?!...haaha

innyc

SilverPipe
10-19-2015, 12:52 PM
hmmm, lol...maybe?!...haaha

I was referring to this opinion:


I.e Ideal target for Dollar 87.9 and 1.25 for Euro. When ? Within about a month.


Thanks for the "insight" though ... truly helpful

captainsilverton
10-19-2015, 01:06 PM
I was referring to this opinion:




Thanks for the "insight" though ... truly helpful

i also....

innyc

Abbas
10-19-2015, 11:49 PM
I was referring to this opinion:

Thanks for the "insight" though ... truly helpful


Thanks for the insight ... been looking for a play on this.

What do you think of the Proshares Ultra Euro (ULE) for this coming rise?

You're welcome, it looks good. If the move comes as planned watch carefully and protect profits with tight stops. We might see a short term bounce from 92.6 DXY level. Once bounce off that level is complete then the real downside move starts.

Good Luck!

SilverPipe
10-20-2015, 06:23 PM
Excellent ... thanks again! Your input here has been a refreshing change and I truly appreciate it.

Abbas
10-23-2015, 10:55 AM
The move past 97 DXY was completely unexpected. It requires me to sit down and reanalyse the entire USD/EURO analysis. Not trading EUR/USD but I would close trades and stand on the side if I was.

DutchSilver
10-24-2015, 08:26 AM
The move past 97 DXY was completely unexpected. It requires me to sit down and reanalyse the entire USD/EURO analysis. Not trading EUR/USD but I would close trades and stand on the side if I was.

Well, how in the world can you account for CB talking heads messing about with your TA?
Still good job thought!

I do not see the euro going to be only "worth" 50 USD cents!
The USD is now high but will be chopped down by our eastern friends

SilverPipe
10-24-2015, 04:32 PM
All good here ... I was waiting for the bounce that you thought might be at 92.6 and saw that it might possibly happen at 94ish.

I'm still on the sideline, powder dry! :)

Abbas
10-26-2015, 02:55 PM
Well, how in the world can you account for CB talking heads messing about with your TA?
Still good job thought!

I do not see the euro going to be only "worth" 50 USD cents!
The USD is now high but will be chopped down by our eastern friends

Hi DutchSilver, actually I should have been able to account for CB heads or anything else. My method is not TA.

And the call is for 1 Euro = 2 USD. ;) It sounds silly atm but things look that way to me.


All good here ... I was waiting for the bounce that you thought might be at 92.6 and saw that it might possibly happen at 94ish.

I'm still on the sideline, powder dry! :)

That's great, I would attempt a small short now at 97ish with stop loss at 98.45.


I.e Ideal target for Dollar 87.9 and 1.25 for Euro. When ? Within about a month.

Still targeting 87.9. Stops at 98.45.

golditiki2
10-28-2015, 01:35 PM
euro fainted suddenly today, somebody able to explain why? Eurosuicide?

Golditiki2+++

DutchSilver
10-29-2015, 08:16 AM
euro fainted suddenly today, somebody able to explain why? Eurosuicide?

Golditiki2+++

FOMC day......No rate rise

Silver_Dragon
11-14-2015, 08:33 PM
As I said in the other thread, I think the EUR/USD is going down to 0.95. The Fed is tightening with no more easing + imminent rate rise while the EU is doing the opposite with QE and negative interest rates. Not too hard to see the equation of that. Plus the EU is being flooded by unproductive, self entitled immigrants with terrorist tendencies. There are now more immigrants in some cities/neighbourhoods/towns etc in the EU than natural Europeans, especially in England, Sweden and Germany. Has anybody considered the economic ramifications for Europe of this mass immigration?

golditiki2
11-15-2015, 12:20 PM
As I said in the other thread, I think the EUR/USD is going down to 0.95. The Fed is tightening with no more easing + imminent rate rise while the EU is doing the opposite with QE and negative interest rates. Not too hard to see the equation of that. Plus the EU is being flooded by unproductive, self entitled immigrants with terrorist tendencies. There are now more immigrants in some cities/neighbourhoods/towns etc in the EU than natural Europeans, especially in England, Sweden and Germany. Has anybody considered the economic ramifications for Europe of this mass immigration?

Yes of course but in modern bought democracy they cannot open their mouth.

Golditiki2 +++

BentleyDavey
05-27-2018, 03:12 AM
Euro still on bearish trend until next week and also with all currency paired with USD.