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View Full Version : Grexit: Euro crash or Euro take off?



metalox
04-03-2015, 06:46 AM
so Greece is now semi-officially preparing for a Grexit
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-02/greece-said-prepare-grexit-drachma-bank-nationalization-plans

now I'm long Euro vs USD, and was wondering wat a Grexit would do for the Euro?

in case of a Grexit and Greek default on its debt, the EU and the EU countries will take the losses
which means more budget cuts, which means bad for the economy, which means more money printing. either way, it will hurt the Euro zone

however, if Greece leaves the Euro, it is a big worry less for the Euro zone, and an example for other EU countries not to go that way
which could be regarded as a good thing for the Euro zone, cutting off a leg that can't be saved if you will, so the rest will come out stronger

DutchSilver
04-04-2015, 10:42 AM
I'm still short Euro vs USD.

I think in case Greece leaves the Eurozone and forfeits on the loan paybacks the EU/ECB has provided the "faith" and "trust" in this fiat paper will take a big hit!
More countries could leave, making it weaker once again.
When it gets kicked out: Same story only that the stockmarket turmoil will make the euro crash look like nothing special.

After a more stable period, and the PIIGS removed, the euro will regain it strength.......Although I'd rather see the Euro die of altogether

metalox
04-05-2015, 07:43 AM
this ZH article shows what I'm talking about
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/morgan-stanley-says-grexit-would-send-eurusd-crashing-090

this article makes the interesting point that a Grexit would actually be good for the Euro, because it's a disaster that would move the other EU members to give up some of their financial independance in return for stability and security
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/russell-green/grexit-for-the-good-of-th_b_6737680.html

it's not unsimilar in how the Rouble crashed recently, but then spiked back up as the Russian central bank intervened
even if there is a strong drop, it's likely to provoke a strong response, which will push it back up

golditiki2
04-05-2015, 11:12 AM
so Greece is now semi-officially preparing for a Grexit
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-02/greece-said-prepare-grexit-drachma-bank-nationalization-plans

now I'm long Euro vs USD, and was wondering wat a Grexit would do for the Euro?

in case of a Grexit and Greek default on its debt, the EU and the EU countries will take the losses
which means more budget cuts, which means bad for the economy, which means more money printing. either way, it will hurt the Euro zone

however, if Greece leaves the Euro, it is a big worry less for the Euro zone, and an example for other EU countries not to go that way
which could be regarded as a good thing for the Euro zone, cutting off a leg that can't be saved if you will, so the rest will come out stronger

i guess nobody cares. We live in a world of words without meaning. We are not allowed anymore to have natural reactions. Reactions are only OK when the drone-media has given its blessing, because outside of the official media there is no valid discussion anymore.

Golditiki +++

DutchSilver
05-19-2015, 03:28 AM
-Kick-


Euro has been gaining quite big time since it's "bottom" @ $1,05 a few weeks back...In one straight line back up $1,14.
BUT since yesterday it has started to drop rapidly again, within 24 hours from $1,145 to $1,118...I read that the ECB is speeding up their QE bund buying program, which is something that in my mind can only mean one thing: FAIL!

golditiki2
05-19-2015, 02:00 PM
-Kick-


Euro has been gaining quite big time since it's "bottom" @ $1,05 a few weeks back...In one straight line back up $1,14.
BUT since yesterday it has started to drop rapidly again, within 24 hours from $1,145 to $1,118...I read that the ECB is speeding up their QE bund buying program, which is something that in my mind can only mean one thing: FAIL!

Has been some time heard something in our "dear" Media about greece, they are probably leeping a secret repetition of what they are going to tell us when they bury the debt, somethinh like " in solidarity with the poor greek people. The Greek on their side are preparing the V signs and ouzo torents, because when the are allowed to go bankrupt, they got away with the biggest heist in history almost a trillion of euros!!! Stupid eurocrats, we got you they will sing.

Golditiki2 +++

primegold
05-27-2015, 08:29 AM
Good question. Can go both ways. It depends what would be the effect on bond purchases in the EU and particularly peripheral bonds by the ECB. If the ECB stays its course or increase purchases, there should be more weakness for the EUR, more so once the Fed starts to increase rates and divergence will be hard to ignore since in many countries in the euro-zone we are close to or at negative rates.

DutchSilver
05-27-2015, 11:29 AM
I hear more and more about that there is a new deal for Greece!
I am sure about it that they cannot "sell" this one as a short kick down the road, that would create more unrest in the markets....so it must be the big ONE, the grand master scheme

golditiki2
05-31-2015, 04:22 PM
I hear more and more about that there is a new deal for Greece!
I am sure about it that they cannot "sell" this one as a short kick down the road, that would create more unrest in the markets....so it must be the big ONE, the grand master scheme

the greek cannot pay on the 5th of june the full sum it is clear and the greek do not want to implement the requirements to get the 7.2 billion aid neither.
The result will be that the lenders iill take what they can and stretch the timing.
They will agree on taking what they can over time and that's it.

Golditiki2 +++

DutchSilver
06-02-2015, 01:39 PM
How is it that the $ index drops so much and that the metals are not responding?
Inflation rises in the EU and therefore the Euro rises???? Make no sense at all!

Someone is dumping $ and buying Euro!

golditiki2
06-03-2015, 11:23 AM
How is it that the $ index drops so much and that the metals are not responding?
Inflation rises in the EU and therefore the Euro rises???? Make no sense at all!

Someone is dumping $ and buying Euro!

Everything is a whim, the "gods" are playing a game they themselves do not understand. The only idea is to get it moving all the time in order to give the impression something " true " is happening.

BTW the "inflation" is up due to increases in taxation !!!. Consumption is not rising at all on the contrary. it means this " inflation" is " taxinflation".

Just try to spin things the right way.

Golditiki2+++

DutchSilver
06-04-2015, 08:46 AM
This has been an amazing week so far and it's not over yet..........

golditiki2
06-04-2015, 03:35 PM
This has been an amazing week so far and it's not over yet..........

Amazing? Nothing has happened, just sleepy as usual. Whatever happens the body doesn't react anymore. The economy is on morphine.

Golditiki2 +++

captainsilverton
06-04-2015, 03:45 PM
this ZH article shows what I'm talking about
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-09/morgan-stanley-says-grexit-would-send-eurusd-crashing-090

this article makes the interesting point that a Grexit would actually be good for the Euro, because it's a disaster that would move the other EU members to give up some of their financial independance in return for stability and security
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/russell-green/grexit-for-the-good-of-th_b_6737680.html

it's not unsimilar in how the Rouble crashed recently, but then spiked back up as the Russian central bank intervened
even if there is a strong drop, it's likely to provoke a strong response, which will push it back up

i think GRK exit is the only way and it will reach fruition...and yes for the better....

inny

captainsilverton
06-04-2015, 03:45 PM
Amazing? Nothing has happened, just sleepy as usual. Whatever happens the body doesn't react anymore. The economy is on morphine.

Golditiki2 +++

depends what sectors you speak of?? ...no?

inny

DutchSilver
06-06-2015, 10:38 AM
"because it's a disaster that would move the other EU members to give up some of their financial independance in return for stability and security"

WHAT? I do not think the people who actually LIVE in the EU will accept that...We will all start to vote for ANTI-EU parties!
In case the banks/Brussels/TPTB (All the same) actually introduce NEGATIVE interest, they will have to to save their -censored- dream, on the savings accounts in The Netherlands then all hell will break out!
We, the dutch, are a bunch of sleepy people that complain (I fit in perfectly) a lot but take no action.........Except for when someone actually starts taking money directly from US, The Hague will burn....just like the tax offices in Denmark that BURNED!

golditiki2
06-06-2015, 02:05 PM
depends what sectors you speak of?? ...no?

inny

Upfront summerholidays, manufacturers produce extra to cover for the holidays production stop.
so NORMALLY june should be a good month for employment.
and summertime is hiring some youg ones for temporary summer restaurant and hotel services, but i doubt the real industry is performing well.
When Rolls Royce sparks people in its shipmotor branch ( = shipbuilding in the doldrums ) and we see agricultural machine producers lay-offs ( also here in Finland idling due to slack demand ) then we know that nothing is really booming, and you look the newspapers and see what they spend o, efforts to sell cars, one understands that things are NOT very rosy whatever they say.

Here in a normal year from the harbour I am close to, we ship to a certain country about 360.000 m3 of sawn wood. If we come this year to 180.000 m3 everybody will be glad... obody even dares to write about that fact in the newspapers.

Maybe the US is doing a bit better but i doubt it, I do not trust anymore economical info.

Golditiki 2 +++