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Davidwd
04-29-2014, 04:03 AM
http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/platinum_group_metals/1641833-Strike-will-hit-platinum-price-in-May#.U19qXdq9KSM

Davidwd
04-29-2014, 04:45 AM
http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2014/04/02/miners-may-fill-orders-by-buying-platinum

Silver Piranha
04-29-2014, 05:28 AM
Thanks for the posts!

Rhodium9000
04-29-2014, 08:24 AM
http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/platinum_group_metals/1641833-Strike-will-hit-platinum-price-in-May#.U19qXdq9KSM

Thanks. I was starting to question my numbers and my math.

sandro1979
04-29-2014, 08:50 AM
http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/platinum_group_metals/1641834-Strike-removes-up-to-25m-ounces-from-market

The ratio for Rh to Pt in mined ore variies from 10% to 25%. In the Rh rich UG2 shafts of Rustenberg the ratio should be more on the upper side. Even if you take the lower ratio =>250k oz lost Rh production is a word...

Rhodium_Cowboy
04-29-2014, 10:30 AM
http://www.miningmx.com/page/news/platinum_group_metals/1641834-Strike-removes-up-to-25m-ounces-from-market

The ratio for Rh to Pt in mined ore variies from 10% to 25%. In the Rh rich UG2 shafts of Rustenberg the ratio should be more on the upper side. Even if you take the lower ratio =>250k oz lost Rh production is a word...

I've read that it takes 10 metric tons of platinum ore to produce a single oz. of platinum. If the ratio of Rhodium to Platinum is 10%-25% per metric ton of ore, we can say that it takes roughly 40-100 metric tons of platinum ore to produce a single oz. of Rhodium. Depending of course on ore quality.

That shows you right there how exceedingly rare Rhodium is. Amazing.

Davidwd
04-29-2014, 11:32 AM
I've read that it takes 10 metric tons of platinum ore to produce a single oz. of platinum. If the ratio of Rhodium to Platinum is 10%-25% per metric ton of ore, we can say that it takes roughly 40-100 metric tons of platinum ore to produce a single oz. of Rhodium. Depending of course on ore quality.

That shows you right there how exceedingly rare Rhodium is. Amazing.

Even zimbabwe is having production problems

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-15479-Mimosa+platinum+output+declines/business.aspx

Rhodium9000
04-29-2014, 01:33 PM
Even zimbabwe is having production problems

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-15479-Mimosa+platinum+output+declines/business.aspx

Zimbabwe: Zim's Mineral Income Drops 15 Percent

http://allafrica.com/stories/201404290642.html

"The country exported palladium worth $50,4 million, up from $51 million a year ago while volumes remained almost flat at 2 500kg. About $7,6 million was realised from rhodium, $37,7 million from high carbon ferrochrome, $10 million from copper $500 548 from graphite."

Davidwd
04-30-2014, 05:44 AM
Thanks. I was starting to question my numbers and my math.

Well it looks as if there may be more stocks than we thought!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/platinum-stocks-idUKL6N0NL6OR20140430

Rhodium9000
04-30-2014, 08:04 AM
Well it looks as if there may be more stocks than we thought!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/30/platinum-stocks-idUKL6N0NL6OR20140430

Really? That is what I have been saying: the ETFs are a huge source of physical material that limit the upside to prices!

Davidwd
04-30-2014, 08:37 AM
Really? That is what I have been saying: the ETFs are a huge source of physical material that limit the upside to prices!

But the metal held within etf's is not available as stock unless investors decide to sell, if the metal starts to take off nobody will want to sell!

Rhodium9000
04-30-2014, 09:05 AM
But the metal held within etf's is not available as stock unless investors decide to sell, if the metal starts to take off nobody will want to sell!

Not exactly. Short selling is quite common.

And then there is this:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7GMOwoizbfg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_sWrq52hk

Rhodium9000
05-01-2014, 01:17 PM
Rhodium production down 37% at Stillwater.

http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140501-910137.html

Davidwd
05-01-2014, 01:49 PM
Rhodium production down 37% at Stillwater.

http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140501-910137.html

Now that is some good news for Rhodium, i am getting impatient as to when prices will react. i think the mining companies are not being honest as regards to their stocks as they dont want to see investors buying the metal and then having to purchase the metal at a higher price in order to fulfill their contracts. I personally think that stocks of Pd and Rh are now getting tight, hence the improved pay offer to amcu a couple of weeks ago.

Rhodium9000
05-01-2014, 02:12 PM
Now that is some good news for Rhodium, i am getting impatient as to when prices will react. i think the mining companies are not being honest as regards to their stocks as they dont want to see investors buying the metal and then having to purchase the metal at a higher price in order to fulfill their contracts. I personally think that stocks of Pd and Rh are now getting tight, hence the improved pay offer to amcu a couple of weeks ago.

Fundamentally, prices will have to go up. My numbers tell me that if the AMCU strike goes into July prices must go up. Chinese demand will cause shortages by then.

http://www.mining.com/web/china-needs-pgms-now/

BTW - the JM NY pm fix was $1060 today.

Davidwd
05-01-2014, 02:13 PM
Rh down $20. On Johnson Mathey

Rhodium9000
05-04-2014, 12:54 PM
http://www.metalsmanagement.umicore.com/en/marktberichte/show_MarketReport_Q1_2014.pdf

A fairly healthy investor buildup.

sandro1979
05-07-2014, 06:11 AM
http://www.fastmarkets.com/minor_metals/74883-0-en

Who the hell has long positions that have to be liquidated at these low levels??? Demand is still robust. It really smells like manipulation...

Davidwd
05-07-2014, 08:38 AM
http://www.fastmarkets.com/minor_metals/74883-0-en

Who the hell has long positions that have to be liquidated at these low levels??? Demand is still robust. It really smells like manipulation...

Particularly now the mines are getting low on stock!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-07/gold-climbs-toward-3-week-high-as-ukraine-assessed-with-economy.html

Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the second-largest producer, said it would cut deliveries by as much as 60 percent in three to four months should the South African strike continue to cripple mines. It met all customer deliveries in April.

Davidwd
05-14-2014, 12:42 PM
Provident seem to be running out of Rh. They have no 5oz, no 1/10oz and only 11x1oz bars left!

Davidwd
05-14-2014, 12:46 PM
Modern coin mart have 2x5oz and no 1oz left. Seems like suppliers in the US are not getting stocks of Baird bars!

darkseid1998
05-15-2014, 12:07 PM
Modern coin mart have 2x5oz and no 1oz left. Seems like suppliers in the US are not getting stocks of Baird bars!

There's still goldeneaglecoin.com. They still have 45 1 oz bars at $1170.

sandro1979
05-16-2014, 09:25 AM
good article:

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-16-golden-goose-or-dying-duck

Rhodium9000
05-16-2014, 11:13 AM
good article:

http://mg.co.za/article/2014-05-16-golden-goose-or-dying-duck

Actually it's utter nonsense. I don't see platinum selling for $983 by 2025. The central bankers will have created so much fiat money by then, that it will more likely cost $10,000. Remember, It's much easier to create money than it is platinum.

Here's how real money is mined (it's much easier to make than bitcoin):

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf

If the strike makes it into July ...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-16/impala-sees-no-output-at-world-s-biggest-platinum-mine-on-strike

Davidwd
05-16-2014, 03:48 PM
Actually it's utter nonsense. I don't see platinum selling for $983 by 2025. The central bankers will have created so much fiat money by then, that it will more likely cost $10,000. Remember, It's much easier to create money than it is platinum.

Here's how real money is mined (it's much easier to make than bitcoin):

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf

If the strike makes it into July ...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-05-16/impala-sees-no-output-at-world-s-biggest-platinum-mine-on-strike

Why arent the prices reflecting this?

Silver Piranha
05-16-2014, 08:27 PM
Why arent the prices reflecting this?

Its a dud.

Rhodium9000
05-17-2014, 10:15 AM
Why arent the prices reflecting this?

Perhaps there's too much hope in tungsten carbide?

Davidwd
05-18-2014, 12:47 PM
Perhaps there's too much hope in tungsten carbide?

Is there hope that TC will replace only PT or RH also? I thought it was just PT?

sandro1979
05-18-2014, 01:54 PM
Best case scenario:
1. Substitute for Pt will be available for industrial purposes.
2. Prices for Pt will drop sharply.
3. High cost Pt mines will close.
4. Supply for Rh will shrink accordingly.
5. Demand for Rh will still rise because no substitute will be available.
6. Rh prices will explode! :-)

Silver Piranha
05-18-2014, 02:03 PM
Best case scenario:
1. Substitute for Pt will be available for industrial purposes.
2. Prices for Pt will drop sharply.
3. High cost Pt mines will close.
4. Supply for Rh will shrink accordingly.
5. Demand for Rh will still rise because no substitute will be available.
6. Rh prices will explode! :-)

I will not be holding my breath for #6 to occur.

Rhodium9000
05-18-2014, 05:35 PM
Is there hope that TC will replace only PT or RH also? I thought it was just PT?

TC requires higher operating temperatures, and is not as robust over time. But it does catalyze NOx to N2 and O2, well sort of ...

Bottom line: it's very cheap, it does not work as well as rhodium, and doesn't last as long.

sandro1979
05-19-2014, 02:44 AM
TC requires higher operating temperatures, and is not as robust over time. But it does catalyze NOx to N2 and O2, well sort of ...

Bottom line: it's very cheap, it does not work as well as rhodium, and doesn't last as long.

I think scientists will manage to make Tungsten Carbide more robust over time.

But: Activation temperature for Tungsten Carbide is 400C. Rhodium activation starts already at 200C. That's the killer argument against a substitution of Rhodium. "Downsizing" is still very common in automotive engine design to reduce fuel consumption. Turbo chargers are combined with smaller engines to keep the performance high. With smaller engines the temperature of exaust gases gets lower and lower. That's actually a main challenge in design of catalytic converters.

Davidwd
05-19-2014, 03:13 AM
I think scientists will manage to make Tungsten Carbide more robust over time.

But: Activation temperature for Tungsten Carbide is 400C. Rhodium activation starts already at 200C. That's the killer argument against a substitution of Rhodium. "Downsizing" is still very common in automotive engine design to reduce fuel consumption. Turbo chargers are combined with smaller engines to keep the performance high. With smaller engines the temperature of exaust gases gets lower and lower. That's actually a main challenge in design of catalytic converters.

So there is still no suitable replacement for pgm's . The deficit in the market must surely affect prices soon - I hope!

sandro1979
05-19-2014, 04:58 AM
So there is still no suitable replacement for pgm's . The deficit in the market must surely affect prices soon - I hope!

Stockpiles are just too high at the moment...

"As anticipated in our previous report, the rhodium price was able to stabilize on a relatively low level. Demand increased substantially, but
there were still larger sellers in the market, so that the price hardly moved. Due to the increasing buying volumes out of Asia it appears that
we may have seen the lowest level for now. However, we are lacking positive indicators for the medium term so that we expect only slightly
increasing prices if at all."

http://heraeus-edelmetallhandel.de/media/webmedia_local/media/pdf/marktberichteenglisch/Heraeus_Precious_Metals_Update_20140519.pdf

Davidwd
05-19-2014, 09:20 AM
I think maybe it was a mistake to invest so heavily in Rh. I had no idea there was so much above ground supplies. All We can hope for is the strike continues for another month, hopefully then the last few years excesses will be used up!

sandro1979
05-19-2014, 10:05 AM
I think maybe it was a mistake to invest so heavily in Rh. I had no idea there was so much above ground supplies. All We can hope for is the strike continues for another month, hopefully then the last few years excesses will be used up!

I don't expect any price spikes soon. For me Rh is a mid to long term investment. When stockpiles are near depletion prices will have to react. No one knows exactly the amount of stockpiles, who holds them and at what levels the owners of physical Rh are willing to release the metal.

One crtical source of supply are recyclers. They are responsible that producers are not able to control the market any more (beside the intelligent stocking strategies of main users) The recycling supply is very intransparent. Many recyclers speculated for higher prices and stocked Rh. But prices went down and now the recyclers have liquidity problems and are forced to sell Rh at any price to save their balance sheets.

Keep cool and don't look every day at price movements. Currently I follow the market very closely because I still accumulate Rh and look for good entry points. The next good entry point will be possibly after the resolution of the strikes.