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View Full Version : Palladium has most potential for growth of all PMs



Falcon7
02-28-2008, 09:40 AM
John Nadler, who hasn't been overly enthustiastic about PMs recently, nevertheless concluded his analysis of PMs that Palladium has a great potential for growth, the best of all PMs. IMO this time he's got it right.

Source: http://www.investorideas.com/Forums/Media/Resources3/jnadler/default.aspx

metalbone
02-28-2008, 09:53 AM
Nadler has his opinions just like everyone else. And its easy to make a prediction AFTER critical market fundamentals have been made known, namely power shortages in S. Africa. But no one really knows which metal will perform the best. Its good to be in multiple metals because whatever metal it is, you'll be covered.

From 06 to the fall of 07, I was thinking "shoot, my IRA should have been more weighted in gold than silver". But so far this year, that has reversed. Time is a factor in all predictions and while Pd may outperform other metals in a certain window, others may outperform Pd in different time windows. I did not see any predictions on Pt shortages prior to the news of actual shortages breaking.

I guess your opinion as to what will perform best should be used as a weighting guide in determining holding percentages.

Falcon7
02-28-2008, 11:54 AM
Until recently I've been frustrated with poor Pd performance, as most of my assets sat in Pd pool. I agree with your assesment of Nadler, I said as much myself. But to tell the truth, until that Nadler presentation, I didn't know that S.A. normally produces as much Pd as Russia! Thus even knowing about S.A. intrustructure problems I didn't anticipate such raise in Pd value. I am glad I stuck with it since early 06. Now I feel vindicated and smart. But you are right, sooner or later things will change and either Ag, Au or Pt may perform better, however I'd be surprised if this is the year.

dissident
02-28-2008, 12:35 PM
I personally expect Pd and Ag to outperform Au over the long term... it's been proven by history that metals that have industrial demand outperform gold even though it's good as a store of wealth there is billions of ounces above ground. I agree with this article though I think silver has just as much opportunity if not more opportunity for price appreciation.

I think it should be trading at a 20 to 1 or better ratio to gold and think it will probably get there and better down the road.

20 dollars an ounce is just so cheap.. it's something everybody could afford.. it could double to 40 and nobody would really bat an eyelash, imo. Sure there are a couple of people out there who own larger amounts, but by in large most people still give you a strange look when you mention it as an investment.

refrep
02-28-2008, 01:20 PM
All I can say is "Why didn't I buy some Palladium". Oh well, its actually been fun watching my fellow Metal Bugs ride a great ride....

silverbullet
02-28-2008, 01:30 PM
All I can say is "Why didn't I buy some Palladium". Oh well, its actually been fun watching my fellow Metal Bugs ride a great ride....
Why not buy some now? It's only going UP UP UP!

II Pd
02-28-2008, 01:58 PM
Why not buy some now? It's only going UP UP UP!

Agree..

The run is not over.

IMO this run alone will get Pd over 1000/oz (If SA problem last)
Just imagine what would happen if some major new use of Pd becomes official while the SA problem is still arround.
Or the Russians stockpile gets depleted.

The price on Pd right now will look VERY cheap in the future - MO.

silverbullet
02-29-2008, 07:29 PM
I truly believe that hydrogen technology is going to take this metal places. That technology, although a bit pricey now, is the wave of the future! The Navy has had that tech for awhile now and within 10-20 years you'll see cars running on it.

CarRide
03-03-2008, 03:08 PM
BMW is making (or going to make) a hydrogen hybrid car.

Quick question? Why is it said that extracting hydrogen from the air is too costly? Just curious because they can sure do oxygen cheaply and easily. My mom had to have continuous oxygen and she had her own little machine that extracted it out of the air. Just really curious, and not trying to hijack the thread. CR

AUfool
03-03-2008, 04:29 PM
While palladium is well-known as a superb absorber of hydrogen, it is not the primary metal used in hydrogen fuel cell technology.

Some may be confused because there has been talk of using bulks of palladium as a sort of safe-from-explosion fuel tank for hydrogen storage in these vehicles. Truth of the matter is it's platinum, our old friend the queen of noble metals, that is actually the basis of the fuel cell technology itself, where energy is extracted from hydrogen and converted to electricity.

Lately, I've seen research showing that very tiny amounts of palladium have been used in conjunction with a bulk of platinum to gain improvements in fuel cell performance. Jumping to any conclusion that this means palladium will supplant platinum in fuel cells is analagous to deciding that salt will replace steak because adding a bit of salt makes steak taste better.

The article linked below is non-technical and suitable for general information:
http://sln.fi.edu/inquirer/hydrocar.html

Prospector
03-03-2008, 08:52 PM
I've been looking into this topic. So far I have found that most palladium comes from Russia, with South Africa being second, and a few other mines in USA and Canada. In the USA Stillwater is pretty much the only one. Russia is an erratic source, and reserves are a state secret. South Africa is mostly offline for now. The mines are capital intensive because most of the processing has to be done at the mine, and the process takes a lot of time, maybe months. The interruption in SA puts pressure on the market, but Russia might or might not increase shipments. Other mines will not increase output any time soon.

So what have I missed? I don't see enough here to predict anything.

wolverine
03-03-2008, 09:43 PM
I was, and am, nervous about Russia's stranglehold on the supply of Pd, but I figured that there can't be too much downside in buying now at current price levels. If Pd tanks, I'll only be fleeced for probably 2/3's of the metal's value. OTOH, Pd's past out-performance of platinum combined with my general feeling that the more well known metals may be getting overbought at a greater pace than Pd make me think that the potential upside is much higher at this price level. Don't get me wrong though, If this stuff hits $1500/oz, I'm dumping it unless geopolitical forces look like they could sustain higher prices.

Regardless, I think Pd's here to stay, and I'll be buying a whole hell of a lot more of it if the price bottoms out.

Argiros
03-03-2008, 11:26 PM
Pd is actualy much more important than Pt to H thech. The only use for Pt is the catalyst, which can be watered down with other PGM's. Pd OTOH is IRREPLACABLE because it is the OLNY substance on earth capable of producing 100%H. No clean H means no well/continualy working Pt catalyst.

But the next most important issue is fuel storage? how do you practicaly store such a light and expansive gas? Conveniently enough, palladium hydride absorbs 800-900x its wight in H. A typical H tank will require 8 or so kilos of H. So, 1/3 of your favorite Pd oz can absorb all those 8.000grammes of H safely and more compactly (still in working theory) in your tank! :eek:

Go PGM!!

AUfool
03-03-2008, 11:45 PM
Pd is actualy much more important than Pt to H thech. The only use for Pt is the catalyst, which can be watered down with other PGM's. Pd OTOH is IRREPLACABLE because it is the OLNY substance on earth capable of producing 100%H. No clean H means no well/continualy working Pt catalyst.

But the next most important issue is fuel storage? how do you practicaly store such a light and expansive gas? Conveniently enough, palladium hydride absorbs 800-900x its wight in H. A typical H tank will require 8 or so kilos of H. So, 1/3 of your favorite Pd oz can absorb all those 8.000grammes of H safely and more compactly (still in working theory) in your tank! :eek:

Go PGM!!

Pretty exciting stuff alright. Since you're a stickler for references, got one or two on this? I believe I did mention that the Pd was tops at safely and compactly storing the hydrogen in an earlier post.

The fact that these technologies are still in very early stages in terms of widespread practical use is why I don't think they will have a very big immediate (next few years) impact on Pd/Pt price ratios. It's possible I will be proven dead wrong, of course.

I still have some cash hanging around...you never know...I might have to build a little stack if it looks like Pd is really going to do anything beyond follow in Pt's wake...which is what it looks like it's doing so far IMVHO.

PMNEWBIE
03-04-2008, 12:04 AM
AU, nice 40 ford.

Argiros
03-04-2008, 12:46 AM
AUFool, I'm not sure you deserve any sources... you, after all, are many links behind, mate :p Don't worry, I'll keep reminding you, I wont stop until your Link King!

But I'll humor you:

http://www.psc.edu/science/Wolf/Wolf.html

And:


“Hydrogen is tough to handle because of the small size of the atoms and because it naturally wants to bond with other elements,” said Ames Laboratory scientist Alan Russell, one of the investigators on the project. “Palladium acts like an atomic filter – the hydrogen atoms readily diffuse right through the metal.”

In the conventional approach to purifying hydrogen, an alloy of 73 percent palladium and 27 percent silver is drawn into long thin tubes, about 3 mm in diameter and 20 feet long. Clusters of these tubes are placed inside a vacuum chamber and heated to between 400 and 500 Celsius. Impure hydrogen gas is then pumped into the small tubes, and the hydrogen readily diffuses through the palladium-silver tube walls and is captured in the outer chamber while the impurities travel out the other end of the tubes.

http://www.scienceblog.com/cms/removing-roadblock-hydrogen-fuel-cells-12869.html


PS Mr.Fool, as much as I love messing with you, your timeline in PGM's meems about right. you are used to +-3,5:1. This will change friend. But IMPatheticO, not sooner than 2-5 yrs. So there is another thing we can agree on. The thing about Pd, is its starting its own dynamic. The SA issue was just the initial push. Many factors are going to give Pd its own dynamics...

Cheers,

Falcon7
03-04-2008, 03:34 AM
So far I have found that most palladium comes from Russia, with South Africa being second, and a few other mines in USA and Canada.

In fact 40% of Pd is mined in Russia while another 40% in South Africa. See this presentation on PMs, where you canl find recent data on slides: http://www.investorideas.com/Forums/Media/Resources3/jnadler/default.aspx

FeboWebo
03-04-2008, 04:24 AM
I guess every PM has had a Jeerleader or two...

If I had a cake I would give it to you.

I hope you're around when PD has its day. ;)

AUfool
03-04-2008, 04:28 AM
I'll let you in on a little secret...one reason my post-count is so high recently is I've got nothing much better to do, being temporarily bedridden. A chart of my posting frequency would look about like a twenty year chart of palladium and we are at 2001. Assuming my creaky old frame heals up on schedule, you should observe a return to my normal average 1 post per day in the next few weeks. Until then...

AND THIS IS FOR ALL OF YOU I MAY HAVE IRRITATED THIS WEEK

...thank you for temporarily tolerating my cranky arrogant cantankerous assholian and verbose posting frenzy.

AUfool
03-04-2008, 04:32 AM
I guess every PM has had a Jeerleader or two...

If I had a cake I would give it to you.

I hope you're around when PD has its day. ;)

When Pd has its day, I'll be on board if I'm still alive. Don't worry yourself one bit. For me right now, Pt still leads the thrust and besides, it's so much smaller. I can put almost half my stash inside a room only 5' x 5' x 1' tall!

AUfool
03-04-2008, 04:48 AM
AU, nice 40 ford.

Only wish it were mine. It's a Boyd Coddington, posted in tribute to his recent passing. My biggest regret in life, for many years (until I realized I could have bought Rhodium at $100), is that as a young guy of 27, in 1977, I sold a 1946 Merc Woody wagon I had kept around for five years and never gotten around to working on. Sold it for $800 and it was very straight, only needed a couple grand work on the outer wood...inside was perfect as was the flathead and drive train. I see them going in much worse shape "barn fresh" on ebay for over $100K now...and restored well, or hot-rodded like the '40 Ford there for $250 to over $500K.

Oh, well...next life maybe!

Argiros
03-04-2008, 11:56 AM
I'll let you in on a little secret...one reason my post-count is so high recently is I've got nothing much better to do, being temporarily bedridden. A chart of my posting frequency would look about like a twenty year chart of palladium and we are at 2001. Assuming my creaky old frame heals up on schedule, you should observe a return to my normal average 1 post per day in the next few weeks. Until then...

AND THIS IS FOR ALL OF YOU I MAY HAVE IRRITATED THIS WEEK

...thank you for temporarily tolerating my cranky arrogant cantankerous assholian and verbose posting frenzy.

Ach So! well this explain alot. I like your 2001 parabolic analogy :D May you have a full and speedy recovery friend, and may you have many more years with your family and forum mates!

best regards,

Talin
03-04-2008, 04:16 PM
:D :D

This is AUfool after the pain meds kick in:


I'll let you in on a little secret...one reason my post-count is so high recently is I've got nothing much better to do, being temporarily bedridden. Until then...

AND THIS IS FOR ALL OF YOU I MAY HAVE IRRITATED THIS WEEK

...thank you for temporarily tolerating my cranky arrogant cantankerous assholian and verbose posting frenzy.

AUfool
03-04-2008, 04:46 PM
Yep, and I gave some to my favorite metal friend, too. She seems healthy and to have avoided with amazing immunity almost all the pain of the day...:D

Must be wearing off...maybe I'm just a natural-born SOB? How about that magic ratio today, fellas? Over 4, it seems now. ;)

Argiros
03-04-2008, 05:20 PM
For some months up to just a few weeks ago it was 4,5+:1. thats still 1/8 gain in a few weeks. These ratios will play back and forth untill the next big event. Personaly Pd would have to go pretty low for me to need morphine!

PS I didn't see you gloating last week :p

AUfool
03-04-2008, 09:52 PM
For some months up to just a few weeks ago it was 4,5+:1. thats still 1/8 gain in a few weeks. These ratios will play back and forth untill the next big event. Personaly Pd would have to go pretty low for me to need morphine!

PS I didn't see you gloating last week :p

I've been gloating quietly since Jan 25 when I grabbed my 1600 buy-in. I was thrilled when it took a rest for a week without really falling back, even though I confess to jealous Pd and Ag twinges while Pt was hovering and they shot up big.

I'll check the 1 month and 2 month chart averages to verify your 4.5+ number wasn't cherrypicked statistically. Could be my perception that Pd lags Pt on the uptake and that Pt has been ratioing up slightly is stale.

Today, while it was anticlimactic to see 2305 briefly this morning and then check again at noon to find 2235, when I look at the day, I'm again just awed by the strength shown by Pt. It just wasn't vulnerable like the others on the downside, even after a big two-day rise. I.E. there seemed not to be any significant New York selloff in Pt today. And Rh was up nice.

I agree it might just be a great opportunity to climb into Pd; I'd probably wait another day or two just in case. But that's only me and only as a hypothetical Pd buyer. Surely, Pd will resume upward and probably regain a 3.75/1 position again. If it hits 3.5, as I mentioned earlier, I might actually get some for the stacking. You never know!

AUfool
03-04-2008, 10:14 PM
I get about 4.2 when I look at 30 and 60 day average ratios, so it seems you're right in correcting me...in the recent history, the ratio is moving smaller in favor of Pd. Right now it's 2225/554 (4.01). Over five years, Pt is still slightly higher than average ratio.

Argiros
03-04-2008, 10:26 PM
I've been gloating quietly since Jan 25 when I grabbed my 1600 buy-in. I was thrilled when it took a rest for a week without really falling back, even though I confess to jealous Pd and Ag twinges while Pt was hovering and they shot up big.

Still no reason to gloat mate!! :confused: The same time you were getting $1600 Pt I was getting $380 Pd. Right now we have 2225 and 554 respectivley. So whlile you got 1x$625 profit, I got 4,4x $274 profit, or $1,205,60 :D

I'm whuping you 2:1 AHAAHAAHAAA all the way to the bank!

How does it feel getting but pounded by Pt's little ugly freckled stepsister?? :p

Whew, how do you like them apples?? :D

Argiros
03-04-2008, 10:33 PM
PS, I'm not trying to get you to buy Pd, really no. Please don't. Keep punting Pt. I wan't sub-600's as long as possible to stack. Funny thing, I was a Pt nut back in the day. Still $ wise, my Pt stack is worth more than my Pd. I want to get them about the same. Fact is, they are both worth having... Just not for you!!

Cheers!

AUfool
03-04-2008, 10:44 PM
Still no reason to gloat mate!! :confused: The same time you were getting $1600 Pt I was getting $380 Pd. Right now we have 2225 and 554 respectivley. So whlile you got 1x$625 profit, I got 4,4x $274 profit, or $1,205,60 :D

I'm whuping you 2:1 AHAAHAAHAAA all the way to the bank!

How does it feel getting but pounded by Pt's little ugly freckled stepsister?? :p

Whew, how do you like them apples?? :D

I feel all tingly and jealous inside and on the verge of tears. But...

since when is 554-380=274? I get 174. x4=696

[sarcastic remark deleted in the name of honor and dignity]

So, the tears are only little bitty $71 tears. Congratulations on the great and timely buy-in!

As for Ugly Frecklefaced Stepsister status, I was prepared to go Rh=King, Pt=Queen, Pd=Princess (the up-and-comer of royalty). Obviously, I deserve little more than a weekly cup of cold gruel and a stale biscuit served in the depths of Hell for eternity, so I'm way ahead of the game.

Argiros
03-04-2008, 10:51 PM
LOL well that was a bonehead mistake! :eek: makes a wee bit of differance aye? :o OK then, so were about even.

Cheers matey! :)

silverbullet
03-04-2008, 10:54 PM
I feel all tingly and jealous inside and on the verge of tears. But...

since when is 554-380=274? I get 174. x4=696

You Pd guys...are all of you such consistent exagerrators?

So, the tears are only little bitty $71 tears. Congratulations on the great and timely buy-in!

As for Ugly Frecklefaced Stepsister status, I was prepared to go Rh=King, Pt=Queen, Pd=Princess (the up-and-comer of royalty).
Yeah, I'm into Princesses though! :p Oh, and that Boyd car is very nice BTW! Sad that he passed last week. I've been to Barrett Jackson numerous times and always love to see his rods there! That yellow Mustang (Crazy Horse) has always been my favorite!

AUfool
03-04-2008, 10:58 PM
:o See how kind I've become lately? Everyone loves me... :o

You'd trade the Mustang for the woody? I tell ya, these Pd guys and their new-fangled ideas...Lord Lord Lord...;)

Argiros
03-04-2008, 11:00 PM
I got a little exited, what with my little freckled lady out pacing your Queen even on the day she lost over $40... But at the end of the day we all win, and anyway I'm gloating, shouldn't I be?

silverbullet
03-04-2008, 11:26 PM
:o See how kind I've become lately? Everyone loves me... :o

You'd trade the Mustang for the woody? I tell ya, these Pd guys and their new-fangled ideas...Lord Lord Lord...;)

Well, not gonna gloat here. Was just saying that I AM A PRINCESS, as you put it being into Pd. AND, yeah, that American Muscle appeals more to me than a Woody actually. That MUSCLE gives me a "WOODY"! :D

Argiros
03-04-2008, 11:31 PM
Very well, thank you sir. I will edit my post as well, let this incident just be gone. :blood pressure declines:

Cheers again then!

AUfool
03-04-2008, 11:32 PM
Well, not gonna gloat here. Was just saying that I AM A PRINCESS, as you put it being into Pd. AND, yeah, that American Muscle appeals more to me than a Woody actually. That MUSCLE gives me a "WOODY"! :D

Okay, I can accept that, but please...no PMs! :eek:

[another bad joke...not to be taken as an insult...said only in jest]

FeboWebo
03-07-2008, 01:48 AM
Okay, I can accept that, but please...no PMs! :eek:

[another bad joke...not to be taken as an insult...said only in jest]

BOOOO

I JUST SENT YOU ONE -- Hater! lol

slowpoke
03-14-2008, 07:47 PM
Ok .......Gotta question , I'm gonna dip a toe in the Pd Pond , a 10oz splash
[more like a kerplunk actually} nothing big but what would you recommend bar or coin ?

N1sapp1
03-14-2008, 09:33 PM
Either is fine really, we have Stillwater and Maple rounds, Engelhard and Pamp bars all 1 oz. We have 1 - 10 oz Pamp bar. I think I like the Stillwater coins the best.

Argiros
03-14-2008, 09:42 PM
Ok .......Gotta question , I'm gonna dip a toe in the Pd Pond , a 10oz splash
[more like a kerplunk actually} nothing big but what would you recommend bar or coin ?
What is the primary purpose of the investment?

slowpoke
03-14-2008, 09:58 PM
What is the primary purpose of the investment?

One to three year investment geared towards swapping into other matals later on so.............. pretty much to increase the stack with potential profits to fund a future swap.

MyBids
03-15-2008, 05:41 PM
I bought Credit Suisse bars from Apmex

Argiros
03-15-2008, 05:52 PM
One to three year investment geared towards swapping into other matals later on so.............. pretty much to increase the stack with potential profits to fund a future swap.

In this case, go with either: 1) that which has lowest premium/oz. 2)that which has greatest liquidity.

In case #1, you would want a 10 oz plaque.

In case #2, you would want low cost single oz's. RCM maple if the trade is to happen in N America, PAMP in the rest of the world. The other plus with singles, is that you dont have to trade them all at once. Could be worth the extra $6-10 each.

Case 2 would also depend on budget. The lower the allocation, the higher degree of benifit for single oz's.

Good luck, and go PMs!!

slowpoke
03-15-2008, 07:46 PM
Caes # 2 is what I was thinking.....thanks for reinfoceing my thought process on this ......much appreciated !!!!! :D

Falcon7
03-20-2008, 04:27 PM
I just listened on CNBC to an inverview with Jim Lennon, an expert from a large bank, who commented about metals future and mentioned specifically palladium as one of very few metals that are rare and expensive to mine, therefore have very strong fundamentals and will grow in value. IMO $700 is still realistic for this year. Don't be a sucker and don't sell now because it is too late. After the smoke clears we will be going up and strong.

NutFlush
03-20-2008, 06:26 PM
Look Au just got tanked this week hard.. Its all over the board Ag Au Pt Pd all the metals were hit. This is good thou it is healthy for this secular bull were in. We will climb again again this year I'm sure but not before we shake and weed out the meek.

slowpoke
03-20-2008, 07:21 PM
I geuss I should have waited a day or two before pulling the trigger but Pds drop wasn't too bad ...but Ag caught me by surprise, but I started stacking Ag years ago so I'm stiil ok. Found a little extra fiat laying around so I'm gonna get more this week before the pain meds wear off for the USD.So my cost average should be about $479.00 ,which I'm happy with!:)


PS thats w/ shipping and insurance

Krank
04-21-2008, 12:16 AM
Only wish it were mine. It's a Boyd Coddington, posted in tribute to his recent passing. My biggest regret in life, for many years (until I realized I could have bought Rhodium at $100), is that as a young guy of 27, in 1977, I sold a 1946 Merc Woody wagon I had kept around for five years and never gotten around to working on. Sold it for $800 and it was very straight, only needed a couple grand work on the outer wood...inside was perfect as was the flathead and drive train. I see them going in much worse shape "barn fresh" on ebay for over $100K now...and restored well, or hot-rodded like the '40 Ford there for $250 to over $500K.

Oh, well...next life maybe!

C'est la vie . . . but anyone who recognizes such a piece of art is OK in my books. Take care Fool. . . and ya never know, the guys who made this web site what it is today are still lurking . . . I know cuz I get emails . . . some day they may return and provide hot tips and free investment advice to those who continue to lurk but haven't yet decided to post. Its a pity that kitco never did recognize that it isn't the forum thats special . . . its the people who chose to post on the forum that makes it special. They're way to interested in making it sterilized, hence no difference of opinions, no alternative discussions. Without the posters . . . this forum is nothing . . . that's why some decided to start their own and invited me, Mone, Silverbug33 and many others. I'll contine to watch and who knows, if they ever get rid of the trash, I'm sure many would return.