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View Full Version : Traderneal is back but for how long, is anyone's guess.



traderneal
02-14-2008, 10:21 PM
So, over the last few weeks there has been a lot of questionable action. Does anyone really want to tell me why, that with Ben's speech today, and Paulson saying the US will provide additional stimulus if necessary, that gold shouldn't be over $1000? Please. This is an operation of huge proportions.

Thomas Jefferson
02-15-2008, 01:08 AM
So, over the last few weeks there has been a lot of questionable action. Does anyone really want to tell me why, that with Ben's speech today, and Paulson saying the US will provide additional stimulus if necessary, that gold shouldn't be over $1000? Please. This is an operation of huge proportions.

Please give us your thesis,I am new but wanting to be taken down the rabit hole.I like your blog very informative,
tell me ..shorts ..when the Au market drops a masive amount of shorts sell off (is this correct?)and this obviously drives a plunge and the roller coaster.whats the shadow that shorts sit in % wise?
also ,how can we tell the volume of a dump on the market and where it is coming from? is their anyway/like can we check against the holdings of the CB reserves World wide?
I aggree with your blog last post ,do you think wheat has more legs?Oil?if so are they easier on the fundamentals to play than the heavily manip Au market.
last thing silv tracks pretty constant with Au so CBs are they holding massive quantities of this also,or is this manip done through leases?:cool:

gold stacks
02-15-2008, 01:50 AM
I read your blogs daily... kinda cracks me up somtimes.

Prospector
02-15-2008, 02:18 AM
As I have said a few hundred times, reality trumps all theories. If markets moved the way people think they should move, prices would be all over the charts.

traderneal
02-15-2008, 08:40 AM
The way it people think it should, but just a majority of times.

I liken to what going on now, as to if XYZ company trading at $6 gets an all cash offer from IBM at $10. And, on this news XYZ goes down. This is what happens to the gold market on a constant basis.

Sulla
02-15-2008, 09:45 PM
Traderneal,
I can't remember my password to Google. Saw your latest blog update.
Hope you got over the flu alright. I think I got a good dose of the stuff too from Typhoid Mary sitting next to me on a plane. Never fails. A friend gave me some of that Airborne vitamin stuff to take. I just ate it and was none to pleased when I found out your supposed to put it in a glass of water. Like a mad dog I started foaming at the mouth.

Anyhoo,
I agree. Look at the XAU/Gold ratio. Historically 5.0 is a great entry point into the miners. Maybe I put to much faith in it, but it has done me right consistently in the past.

You ask who is in charge? Bull or bears? Norcini of jsmineset.com fame says the bulls are scared to push it higher and that is why we are languishing. I agree with that take. The question is....................how much longer can they keep the facade up?

http://traderneal.blogspot.com/

ffffg
02-16-2008, 07:31 AM
My take is some of the fluid moneymay be going to platnum lately.. Just becouse you guys have picked gold doesnt mean its where the money will go all the time.. Not only are there longs, shorts, stocks, bonds, i certainly dont know what all , there are other metals.. Gold is nice stuff, fits into the big picture, but is isnt the big picture... Its a big world out there and lot of other people just arnt that interested in it. Im betting alot of big money that likes gold has taken profits and is waiting for a correction to get back in.. dave

Thomas Jefferson
02-16-2008, 07:36 AM
My take is some of the fluid moneymay be going to platnum lately.. Just becouse you guys have picked gold doesnt mean its where the money will go all the time.. Not only are there longs, shorts, stocks, bonds, i certainly dont know what all , there are other metals.. Gold is nice stuff, fits into the big picture, but is isnt the big picture... Its a big world out there and lot of other people just arnt that interested in it. Im betting alot of big money that likes gold has taken profits and is waiting for a correction to get back in.. dave

So we need to watch the electricity supply isues closely & what the Sth Afr govt etc are dong ...,Are these plat mines on google earth?
:cool:

Talin
02-16-2008, 08:26 AM
A friend gave me some of that Airborne vitamin stuff to take. I just ate it and was none to pleased when I found out your supposed to put it in a glass of water. Like a mad dog I started foaming at the mouth.



OMG, OMG, ROTFLMAO. Kinda like feeding Alka Seltzer to pigeons. I never did it, but I knew a kid in the 4th grade who did.

goldbuggerer
02-16-2008, 09:23 AM
So, over the last few weeks there has been a lot of questionable action. Does anyone really want to tell me why, that with Ben's speech today, and Paulson saying the US will provide additional stimulus if necessary, that gold shouldn't be over $1000? Please. This is an operation of huge proportions.


lots of posters seem to think that as our economy goes to hell gold will go up. time will tell.

traderneal
02-16-2008, 11:59 AM
It is going parabolic and these type of moves don't last forever. When the power issues are solved, and they will be, Plat will come crashing back to earth.


Gold on the other hand just lays there. The IMF stories started last week did the job in capping gold for the week.

Argiros
02-16-2008, 08:04 PM
lots of posters seem to think that as our economy goes to hell gold will go up. time will tell.

depends what you mean by hold up. maybe not in numerical terms, but certainly in value terms, yes. Hold up better than anything else except your house maybe...

traderneal
02-18-2008, 12:09 PM
I have just updated my blog with a reply to your thoughts. (I wrote the piece before I saw your reply).

In a nutshell, gold has been my most profitable long term investment ever. I have been involved with gold since $375 and I am quite happy. However, it is the constant crap we have to put up with that makes me very angry.


Look at Platinum as it has gone parabolic. Why? Because there is going to be a shortage becasue of the South Africa energy problem. Gold is now forecast to have a deficit of 400k ounces for 2008, and gold just sits there getting capped at every attempt to rise higher.

You tell me why I get anry.


Go read my blog for more info.

fernbook
02-18-2008, 12:49 PM
..........
.......... Gold is now forecast to have a deficit of 400k ounces for 2008, and gold just sits there getting capped at every attempt to rise higher.
.

Well TNeal Gold has not just been sitting there in a parking lot. In fact it has been rather active for a lumpy shiny thing that pays no interest and costs money to store. For the immediate future it may even retreat for all we know.
On the other hand, it has been noted that "3000+ contracts of February gold futures were still open as of Thursday's close 2/14.
Most unusual and close to the wire.
Could it be that some speculator/s are holding out fora 10 ton delivery?. If so, than they would have to have big ready cash backing way over margin to demand physical delivery. What effect would such a drawdown have?
All shall be revealed in due time. Be patient.

traderneal
02-18-2008, 01:14 PM
My point is look at Plat and Palladium, imo, those are examples of natural markets that are allowed to go higher unfettered.

fernbook
02-18-2008, 01:52 PM
My point is look at Plat and Palladium, imo, those are examples of natural markets that are allowed to go higher unfettered.

These are VERY THIN markets. Plat. and Pall. do not have a global interest nor history nor volume. Moreover they are the antithesis of "natural" they are artificial markets that developed in the last few decades as certain "must have" industrial uses became important, (notably due to government dictum, not because it was absolutely needed) and as a few (notably japanese) invested in physical. They are not natural because there are no mayor exclusive Platinum mines for example. They are collected as a byproduct or recent increasing function of other mining notably gold and silver and copper.
No one is "allowing" or fettering anything. Those that do (including quasi governmental even international agencies) and put up money in the attempt, do so at risk, just as those of us who go long gold also do so at risk.
I remember the days when silver was exploding and an important part of the background was the "must have" need for photography. Imagine what would happen if overnight platinum is no longer needed for cat. converters and/or one or several governments wave the cat. requirements? Instant collapse of the platinum market. And that too would be a function of government dictum. I wonder if that cheap 2.5 K TATA in India even has one. Do we know? What about the cheap chinese knockoffs for internal use? Do they have smog control testing stations in the Gobi?
In any event, gold is looking just fine to me. Hovering for a long time in this 900 range is probably desirable. I hope it stays there rather than dropping the either/or level you indicated.

Sulla
02-18-2008, 04:07 PM
Who are these perpetual top callers that you keep alluding too?